The Dodgers did not beat the Cubs in the NLDS–the Cubs beat themselves. The Dodgers could not hit any of the three Cub starters, and only scored due to gifts from the Cubs. I will give the specifics regarding the gifts the Cubs gave the Dodgers, and then point out their effects.
Game 1: Dempster walked batter after batter. After escaping numerous jams as a result, he finally walked the bases loaded in the 5th inning, and since he had to throw a strike, gave up a grand slam. The Cubs led 2-0 to this point, and the Dodgers couldn’t hit Dempster.
Game 2: The Dodgers couldn’t hit Zambrano. He gave up 5 runs in the second inning, all of which should have been unearned due to two errors, including one on a routine double-play ground ball that would have ended a scoreless inning.
Game 3: Harden gave up 2 runs in the first inning because Ramirez failed to tag a runner going to third when he had the ball well in advance and had his glove down. He left his glove down and didn’t try to tag the runner until it was too late. The runner should have been easily out, and no runs would have scored this inning. After this play, a horrible throw to the catcher by Fontenot allowed the second run to score, when a halfway decent throw would have gotten the runner by 10 feet.
All of these gifts changed the momentum of the games, frustrated the Cubs, and gave the Dodgers confidence. These momentum changers, and playing from behind due to giving away runs every game, carry over to the offense and affected the Cubs’ hitting as hitters try to do too much. Being frustrated by giving up gift runs time and again has a big effect, and causes a team to start pressing. After giving away the first game, the Cubs gave up multi-run innings due to errors very early in Games 2 and 3, which set the tone for these games and affected the momentum for both teams.
The Cubs beat themselves, unlike the White Sox who are getting beat by a better team. I heard an interesting stat today on sportsradio. The announcer said that the Cubs played 93 games against teams with a winning record, and were 51-42. The Sox played far fewer games against teams with a winning record (69), and were 29-40. If this is true, it shows the difference between the two teams. And, the Cubs didn’t get into the playoffs on a coin flip as the Sox did, getting in instead of the Twins even though the Twins won the season series. The Cubs earned their way there.
1. Chris Mitchel on October 6th, 2008 8:06 am
The Sox got into the playoffs by a coin flip? The Sox won their division and the coin flip merely allowed the game to be played at home. They still had to play and win the game. Like the cubs/Astros series being played in Milwaukee wasn’t a joke? The Sox were not even supposed to sniff the playoffs this year. All the “experts” had them in third place. The mighty cubs were pre-ordained to win the World Series by just about evey publication. I believe most of the cub players thought the same thing. At least their bats finally came alive in the Dodger clubhouse on the plumbing. Way to get angry at the right time. This years collapse was sweeter, because even the cub hater that I am did not see this one coming. There’s always next century. Go White Sox!!!
2. Larry on October 12th, 2008 2:40 pm
The Sox got into the playoffs due to a coin flip because they would never have won the game had it been played in Minnesota. The game should have been in Minnesota due to the head-to-head record. The Cubs/Astros series being played in Milwaukee was wrong, and it could have hurt the Cubs. The Cubs had the division wrapped up and Houston was hot. Houston in the playoffs would have been an easier matchup. We do agree the Cubs blew their playoff series, which doesn’t mean they weren’t the better team.
3. Colin Cuzman on November 18th, 2008 11:47 am
Mr. Lifson,
I would like to see an article on possible Peavy/Sabathia signing, and if you honestly think the Cubs can ever win a World Series. I honestly don’t know how you can still be a Cubs fan.
Colin
4. Larry on December 3rd, 2008 12:50 am
Colin, I just saw your comment now, so sorry for the delay in responding. I think a Peavy or Sabathia signing would be great for the Cubs. That would bring them a good 6th starter and give them depth in case one of their current top 5 starters got injured. If they did sign either of those guys, you’re looking at a 120-win team, not including the playoffs/World Series.