In fairness, I will say that the Packers scored a touchdown in last week’s Wild Card Playoff game against the Redskins that should have been called back by penalty.  Though the Packers won the game 35-18, no one knows the impact the bad call had on the game.

Tonight’s Packer-Cardinal Divisional Playoff game was stolen from the Packers by the refs.  It would never have come to that without McCarthy’s terrible coaching, as usual.  In addition, one of the most unfair rules in sports also hurt them.

We will start with the refs.

1. Numerous times during the game, Peppers and Matthews came around the edge to rush Palmer, and the offensive lineman blocking them put his arm around their upper body to blatantly hold them in the open field near the quarterback to prevent them from getting to the quarterback, with no call.
2. Leading 13-10 in the fourth quarter, the Packers threw a third-and-10 pass from their 43 to Richard Rodgers for the first down and a big gain, which was correctly overturned and called incomplete.  Rodgers was clearly interfered with on the play, and Aaron Rodgers referenced this in his postgame press conference.  Had the interference been called, the Packers get a first down and keep driving, trying to add to their lead.  Due to the lack of calling pass interference, the Packers had to punt.
3. Up 13-10, the Cardinals had third-and-10 from the Packer 19.  Matthews was rushing from the right (Palmer’s left), and to prevent him from getting to Palmer, the offensive lineman wrapped his arm around Matthews’ upper body to blatantly hold him in the open field visible to all.  As a result, Palmer completed a pass for 10 yards and a first down to the 9.  Instead of probably having to go for a tying field goal, the Cardinals scored a touchdown to go up 17-13 with only 3:44 left in the fourth quarter.
4. How did the Cardinals score their touchdown?  A Cardinal receiver blocked a Packer defensive back all the way down the field into the endzone.  The announcers showed the replay, and said it was a blatant penalty and the TD shouldn’t have counted, as the receiver was setting a pick.  That TD resulted in the Packers deciding to go for it on fourth-and-5 from their 25, giving Arizona a field goal that put them up 20-13 with 1:55 left in the fourth quarter.
5. Prior to the long pass that set up the Hail Mary tying touchdown, there was blatant interference on a long pass to Janis, again in the open field, with no call.
6. Late in the third quarter, Larry Fitzgerald “caught” a 22-yard pass that was ruled a catch, and the Packers challenged the call.  On the replay it looked as if the ball hit the ground and Fitzgerald momentarily lost possession, but the catch was upheld on the review, and the Cardinals not only got the yardage, but the Packers lost an important timeout.

Now, McCarthy.  McCarthy made the same mistakes he continues to make and never understands.  First-down runs stalled the first three Packer drives.  Rather than being aggressive and trying to score early, he made no attempt to score, by running on first downs.  This kept Arizona in the game, and was the reason the Packer offense scored only 13 points all game until the Hail Mary on the last play.  In addition, the first-down run on the opening possession from their 12 resulted in a punt that gave Arizona the ball on the Packer 42, and helped the Cardinals score their first TD since they had a short field.  McCarthy continues to shut down the Packer offense with his establish-the-run gameplan.  Once the Packers lost Cobb early, they were playing without their top 4 receivers–Nelson, Cobb, Montgomery, and Adams.  They needed to throw to try to score points, as they were missing big-play receivers.

Now, the rule.  I have said for many years and posted here that the NFL overtime rule is blatantly unfair.  Defenses are tired at the end of games, and to not allow both teams to possess the ball means that the coin flip can play a major role in who wins.  As I’ve pointed out for many years, the fair way to do this is to give both teams possession, and if one team is not ahead after this, give both teams another possession, and continue until one team has the lead after an equal number of possessions.

The Packer-Seahawk game was a very important game, because if the Packers won, they would have a 2-game lead on Seattle plus the tiebreaker for homefield advantage in the playoffs.

Up 10-3 at the end of the half, the Packers had the ball on the Seattle 1, and on second down, a blatant pass-interference in the endzone that lasted a number of seconds was not called, and then another pass interference in the endzone wasn’t called on third down.  Instead of the Packers getting a TD at the end of the half, going up 17-3, and having momentum, they had to kick a FG, Seattle got the momentum from holding them, and Seattle scored TDs on their first two second-half possessions to go up 17-13.

Another reason the Packers needed the TD at the end of the half is because of all the injuries on offense they had in the first half–Lacy, Adams, Bulaga.

After the first TD, the Packers needed to regain momentum, which for the Packers means throwing on first down, but McCarthy ran on first down for 2, punted, and Seattle scored another TD.

McCarthy was conservative in the first half, as usual, resulting in the Packers only scoring 13 points.  McCarthy kicked a FG from 1-1/2 yards away at the end of the half, and being passive carried over to the defense, allowing Seattle to score TDs on its first two second-half possessions.

The Packers, down 17-16 due to the conservative play calling (running), got the ball back in the last minute of the third quarter.  They ran on first down for no gain, then had a false start (once again a first-down run resulted in something negative), and the quarter ended with the Packers having 2nd-and-15.  When the 4th quarter started, they then passed on the next 10 plays (one was a scramble on a called pass), and scored an easy TD.  They didn’t have a running back in the game for those plays, meaning there was no threat of play-action and the Seahawks knew they were going to pass, but the Packers still scored an easy TD.  Had McCarthy been aggressive all game, the game isn’t close.  He keeps opposing teams in games, and when you do that, a turnover, an injury, a fluke play, etc. can cost you the game.

Once again, the refs stole the game from the Packers, preventing them from going to the Super Bowl.  McCarthy continued to do everything I have continuously posted about and shown how these strategies have hurt the team game after game, year after year.  He will never get it.  In addition, the Packers made 3 terrible plays, but none of that would have mattered if not for the refs.  Readers of this site will recognize these issues that I have brought up for decades.  Let’s look at all three of these categories, one by one.

REFS

The game should have been in Green Bay, and it’s obvious the Packers would have won had it been there.  If the refs don’t steal the Bills game from the Packers, the game is in Green Bay.  In addition, the refs helped the Seahawks beat the Packers the opening game and helped them beat the 49ers.

The Packers took the opening kickoff, and were driving.  They were at the Seattle 29, when Rodgers drew a defensive lineman offside.  It was obvious and I commented on it during the play.  The pass was intercepted, stopping a good drive and a chance for the Packers to score on their first drive and get momentum.  After the game, Rodgers said he felt he had a free play on the first interception, and the center snapped the ball early once they drew the lineman offside.  Of course there was no call, and the interception stood.

With under 8:00 left in the third quarter, the Packers were up 16-0 and the Seahhawks were going nowhere.  On first-and-15, Matthews sacked Wilson for a big loss, making it second-and-31.  An offensive lineman hit Matthews illegally after the play, as Matthews had already tackled Wilson and was laying on him on the ground when the lineman drove into his back.  The refs called unnecessary roughness, and said the Packers declined the penalty.  I might not know the rule, but how can this not be a dead-ball foul or at least still have the penalty marked off as a personal foul?  The NFL rulebook states:

Dead Ball Declared. An official shall declare the ball dead and the down ended:
(a) when a runner is contacted by a defensive player and touches the ground with any part of his body other than his hands or feet. The ball is dead the instant the runner touches the ground.

Had they applied the 15-yard penalty, it would have been second-and-46 from the Seattle 27, and they would almost assuredly have punted.  Instead, Seattle got the first down and went on to score a touchdown that put them back in the game.  Had Seattle punted, they would have continued to have done nothing offensively, and the Packers would have had the ball with a chance to score again or at least give the ball back to Seattle late in the third quarter, with them having gone nowhere and having no momentum.

Again, I might not know the rule, but the Seahawks had second-and-six with 8:28 left in the third quarter, down 19-7, and a receiver dropped a pass that would have given them a first down.  He picked up the ball and threw it out of bounds.  Should that have been a delay-of-game penalty?

So, it’s obvious the refs prevented the Packers from advancing to the Super Bowl.

McCARTHY

For decades, I have talked about how first-down runs stall drives.  The Packers have struggled in the red zone this year, due to this.  In the New England game, they stalled 3 drives in the red zone and a drive at the 26 by running on first down.  Would McCarthy learn?  He had a chance to score 2 early TDs and go up 14-0, which would have been huge against a team like Seattle.  What does McCarthy do?

• First drive:  Stopped by the bad-call interception.
• Second drive:  Have first-and-goal from the Seattle 7, run on first down, and kick a field goal.
• Third drive:  Have first-and-goal from the Seattle 7, run on first down, and kick a field goal

I have written about being aggressive offensively, and when a team is passive, it frequently costs them.  On the second drive, the Packers had third-and-goal from a foot away.  I said before the play to run a QB sneak.  They didn’t, and had no gain.  I then said they had to go for it on fourth down.  The odds of scoring a TD from a foot away are very high, and if you don’t, it’s likely you will get the ball back in field-goal range anyway.  McCarthy kicked the field goal.  On the third drive, the Packers had fourth-and-goal from the 1, and kicked a field goal.  I said this would probably cost them.  Of course, these decisions were costly.

McCarthy’s being conservative continues to cost the Packers games, and keeps other games unnecessarily close.  The ESPN announcers said after the game the Packers “played it safe” when they needed to capitalize on opportunities and “should have won.”  The post below this one talks about how finally opening up the offense allowed the Packers to come back and beat Dallas in last week’s playoff game, and what the Packers should have done in the first Seattle game (which is also what should have been done in this game), all of which I have been saying for decades.

• The Packers were up 13-0 in the second quarter, and had a third-and-3 from the Seattle 24.  They ran for 2 yards and kicked the FG.
• Instead of being aggressive and trying to put the game away, he was very conservative in the fourth quarter, and it cost them the game.  The Packers ran 13 offensive plays in the 4th quarter until they lost the lead with 1:25 left.  9 were runs and only 4 were passes.  A few first downs would have ended the game, but McCarthy made no attempt to get them.  He wanted to put the game in the hands of his tired defense against the Super Bowl champions who were were at home and extremely difficult to beat at home.
• In the fourth quarter, until losing the lead with 1:25 left, the Packers had 5 first-down plays, and ran on ALL of them.  Readers of this website know that for decades, running on first down has stalled drives for the Packers.  It was this completely conservative gameplan that prevented the Packers from having long drives and scoring, and cost them the game.  In the last 1:25, the Packers had to pass, the Seahawks knew they had to pass, and they moved the ball downfield to kick the field goal to tie the game.

McCarthy continues to rush three (or less) on third-and-long, which continues to burn the Packers.  Doing this gave the Giants their first TD and the Hail Mary TD at the end of the half in the home playoff game after the Packers’ 15-1 season, the year after winning the Super Bowl, and cost the Packers the game.  Rushing three continues to hurt them.  When the Packers were up 16-0 and were getting a good rush on Wilson, the Seahawks faced a third-and-19.  The Packers rushed 2 men and had a “spy,” which gave Wilson all day to complete a pass for 29 yards and a first down, ultimately leading to their first TD to put them back in the game.  How many times will the Packers get burned by this before he stops doing it?  As pointed out in the Giant game’s blog post, I told people around me in the stands that McCarthy would rush 3 on the Hail Mary, and the Giants would score.  Aside from the fact that the bad call kept this drive alive, this strategy also cost them the game.

I have continuously talked about how playing press coverage with no safety help has burned defensive backs continuously, and has hurt the Packers.  Quarterbacks love to see that.  In overtime, on third-and-7 from their own 30, the Seahawks completed a 35-yard pass because the Packers played press coverage with no safety help.  On the next play, the Packers did the same thing, and the Seahawks threw a 35-yard TD pass for the “winning” TD.  On the last play, Wilson said he “checked” to the play when he saw the coverage.

Richard Sherman hurt his elbow in the fourth quarter, I believe, and looked like he couldn’t use that arm.  The Packers never went after him to see if he could make plays or tackles.

PLAYERS

Up 19-7 with 5:04 left, the Packers intercepted at the Packer 43, and the defensive back went down on his own.  Had he run for another 10-or-more yards, the Packers might have gotten at least a FG, which would have put them in great position and probably won the game.

With 2:07 left, a Packer dropped an onside kick right to him that would have just about ended the game.

The 2-point conversion that put Seattle up by 3, allowing the Packers to only tie at the end, should have been easily knocked down, as it was basically thrown very high and up for grabs and defensive backs were there.

The Packers called timeout with 19 seconds left to try a field goal to tie the game.  That gave Seattle some time to try to get into winning-FG position.  Why didn’t McCarthy call timeout with 3 seconds left?

The refs stole a crucial game from the Packers today, a game which has a lot of potential playoff implications.  McCarthy’s strategies greatly contributed to the loss, and didn’t allow the Packers to overcome the bad calls.  The Packers “lost” to the Bills, 21-13.

Let’s start with the refs.

1. In a scoreless game in the first quarter, the Packers had a third-and-three from the Buffalo 27.  They threw a pass to Jordy Nelson, which he would have caught for a first down, but he couldn’t catch the pass because the defender grabbed his jersey by his shoulder and held him.  This was very visible in the open field.  No call, which turned a potential touchdown into a field goal, and also deprived the Packers of the momentum they would have had from scoring a TD.
2. Down 16-10 in the fourth quarter, the Packers had a third-and-three from the Buffalo 34.  The Packers threw a pass to Boykin, which bounced off his hands and was intercepted.  The defensive back had his arms draped around Boykin well prior to the pass getting there, and because he was basically being tackled, he couldn’t make the catch and the ball bounced off his hands to the defender.  No call, of course, and not only did the Packers not score when they were in scoring position, but Buffalo went on to get a field goal.  A 6- to 10-point turnaround, plus momentum.
3. Later in the fourth quarter, down 19-10, Nelson caught a pass to the Buffalo 35, and was thrown hard to the ground well out of bounds.  Had the penalty been called, the Packers would have had a first down at the Buffalo 20.  On a third-and-8 play from the Buffalo 16 later in the drive, Cobb was interfered with and there was no call.  The failure to call either of these penalties resulted in the Packers kicking a field goal instead of having the opportunity to score a TD.

Now, let’s talk about McCarthy.  I won’t repeat the details regarding what I always say about Favre and Rodgers always playing well when they come out passing and let the QBs get in a rhythm, and struggling when they don’t.  When the Packers ran on the first play against the Lions earlier in the year, I said they were in trouble.  They ran on the second play, fumbled, and it was returned for a TD.  The Packers struggled offensively all game and lost 19-7.  When they ran on both first downs on the first drive today, I said the same thing–the Packers’ offense will struggle.  This was exactly what happened, as they struggled offensively all game and never got in sync, resulting in bad passes and dropped passes.  When they throw on the first 6-7 plays of a game, and continue throwing on early downs and often, the offense dominates.  When McCarthy faces a good defensive team, he tends to get conservative and run on early downs, which results in them struggling.  Examples:

1. The Packers ran on both first downs of their opening drive, and punted.
2. With the Packers up 3-0 in the first quarter, the Bills returned a punt for a TD.  I have said for many years that I would always punt 35-40 yards with height, forcing a fair catch, and not put myself in the position of the other team making a big play.
3. The Bills got a field goal in the second quarter to tie the game at 10 after the Packers gave up two big passing plays by playing press coverage with no safety help.  Teams continue to get burned on this, but the Packers keep doing it.  When they lined up for the second pass and I saw the formation, I predicted the big play to that receiver.
4. When it was 10-10 in the second quarter, a first-down run stalled a drive, and the Packers had a field-goal attempt blocked.
5. Later in the second quarter, still 10-10, the Packers ran on first and second down and punted.
6. Down 13-10 in the third quarter, the Packers threw on first down for a big gain, then ran on first down and punted.
7. Down 16-10 in the third quarter, a first-down run led to an interception that was returned to the Packer 29.

PACKERS-SEAHAWKS

The Packers were up 7-3 early in the second quarter.  On second-and-12 from their own 34, Seattle completed a 33-yard pass to the Packer 33, and scored a TD on a 33-yard pass on the next play due to the field position and momentum.  On the pass to the Packer 33, Clay Matthews was blatantly held while rushing the passer from the outside in the open field where it was very visible, and he was held for over 5 yards.  Had this obvious call been made, Seattle would have had a second and 22 from their 24, instead of a TD that gave them a 10-7 lead and momentum.  As it was a 7-point Seattle lead at half and a 12-point lead after 3 quarters, this was a critical non-call.  The momentum from the TD carried over to the next possession, and Seattle scored a TD then, too, giving them a 17-10 halftime lead.  The non-call was a game-changer.

McCarthy continued to be conservative when facing a very good defense, as he normally is, and as it normally does, it cost the Packers.  When the Packers would play the Giants, bears, or any team with a good defense, he would run a lot, which would cause the offense to be out of sync and cost them games.   He did the same thing in this game.  They were down 3 offensive linemen and a tight end, and McCarthy felt he could run the ball for some reason.  He also never once the entire game targeted or tested Richard Sherman, effectively allowing him to take away a third of the field and take a player out of the game.  This was the side the Packers had their most success on in the past.  One of the announcers on Mike and Mike (ESPN radio) and also Cris Carter said that it was shocking to have this strategy, and called it a “headscratcher.”  One of them also said Sherman can be beaten on double moves.

With 8:04 left in the fourth quarter, the Packers, having just scored a TD to pull within 13, stopped Seattle on third-and-six from their own 24, which would have given them the ball back in good field position with momentum.  An iffy defensive holding penalty gave Seattle a first down, and they went on to score a TD to end the game.  The refs had no problem calling this, but not the blatant hold on Matthews.

PACKERS-JETS

The Packers fumbled the snap on their first play at their 16, resulting in a Jet TD.  McCarthy then put them behind 14-0 by playing press coverage with no safety help, resulting in a 29-yard TD pass.  When QBs see this coverage, they audible to a long pass to that receiver, since it’s so easy to beat.  The Packers did come back to win.

PACKERS-LIONS

The Lions are great against the run, coming in second in the league with a 2.5-yard average against them.  Their secondary is a big weakness.  What does McCarthy do?  He comes out running, using the same ridiculous philosophy of trying to establish the run that has cost them so many times.  He ran Lacy on the first two plays of the game, and he fumbled on the second carry, which was returned for a TD and a 7-0 Detroit lead.  They then ran the first two plays of the second drive, resulting in a punt instead of trying to get into an offensive rhythm and get momentum.  On the third drive, they ran on both first downs and punted.

In a 7-7 game in the second quarter, the Packers intercepted at their 1.  They ran Lacy, and he was tackled for a safety and a 9-7 Lion lead.  The Lions scored a TD after the kick following the safetly, due to the momentum.  So, a 12-7 Detroit halftime lead can be summarized by saying all 12 Lion points were the result of Packer runs, and the Packers only had 7 points due to their emphasis on the run game and failure to try to score.  The Packer offense again could not get in rhythm since they emphasized the run.  As usual, the Packers were not throwing downfield or attacking the Lion defense.

Down 19-7 with 6:59 left in the 4th quarter, the Packers had 4th-and-5 from the Lion 20.  Instead of a high-percentage pass to get the first down and then a TD to cut the lead to 19-14, the Packers threw a pass to the goal-line, which was incomplete and stopped the drive.

McCarthy did admit after the game that he ran too much.  I said this after the first play of the game, and he never realized it until after the game.

Well, we are three games into the season for the Packers and two games in for the bears, and the refs have played a major role in both Packer “losses” and one of the two bear “wins.”  What a surprise.

I will provide details on the refs’ contribution below, but will focus mostly on McCarthy.  It is incredible that he can’t see why his strategies continue to fail, as these strategies have failed for the Packers for the last 20 years, and the recommended strategy has worked for the last 20 years.  Last week McCarthy finally got aggressive with his playcalling (see post below), and the Packers blew out the opponent.  Today, he went back to his normal strategy, and the result was predictable.  I have said that the Packers have to come out aggressively and pass on first downs.  I have also always said this will give them a big lead, and allow them to overcome:

1.  Injuries–The Packers started the game with their secondary decimated, and during the game lost Finley (injured on first drive), Matthews (missed most of second half), and Starks (missed most of second half).  They had already lost their top two running backs, their fullback, and their left tackle.

2.  Turnovers–The Packers had two interceptions and a fumble today, all of which played a critical role in the outcome.

3.  Fluke plays.

4.  Bad calls–see below.

I’ve said that if the Packers throw on first downs, they’ll get first downs, but if they run on first downs, they might get a first down, but the drive will stall.

I have also always said Packer conservative gameplans allow the opponent to hang around, get confidence, get the advantage of the above four things, and potentially win the game.  I’ve said when the Packers throw, they win easily, and when they run, they get in close games, some of which they win and some of which they lose.  They are consistently one of the top teams in the league, so win many of these games, but these games don’t have to be close and they do lose some of these games.

I’ve also said that the Packers have to throw on first downs after the other team scores, to regain the momentum and stop the opponent’s momentum.  I’ve also said that Favre’s and Rodgers’ interceptions come during games when they are frustrated with the conservative gameplan.  When the Packers are aggressive, they don’t throw interceptions because they are in a rhythm, know they will get other chances to throw, don’t feel they have to make a play as a result, and will have a big lead so can play with less pressure.

This game was another weekly perfect example of what I’ve been saying for 20 years.  Let’s look at what happened:

The Packers were down 14-0 before they got the ball, due to a Cincy TD and a fumble of the kick inside their 5.  McCarthy should be aggressive and throw on first downs to score and change the momentum.  What does he do?  Run on first down for a first down.  Throw on first down and get a first down.  Run on first down and punt.

Finley, a key part of the offense, was hit in the head on the opening drive, and the concussion forced him to miss the rest of the game.  The Packers were also the victim of helmet-to-helmet hits that were dangerous in their previous two games.

Second possession, down 14-0:  Run on first down and punt.

McCarthy, down 14-0, made no attempt to score on these drives, and wasted the drives in a game that was decided by less than a TD.  The conservative gameplan, as predicted, resulted in a close game that came down to the final plays, and this not only greatly frustrated Rodgers, but it cost them the game.

Down 14-3, the Packers recovered a fumble at the Cincy 37.  They ran on first down and punted.  Troy Aikman, TV announcer, said this was a frustrating start for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.  I wonder why.

The Packers got the ball at the Cincy 21 on a turnover.  They ran on first down and got a first down.  With 8:35 left in the half, Rodgers was 2 of 8 for 25 yards, thanks to the conservative gameplan.  They ran on first down again, but there was defensive holding, and it was a first down at the 5.  They passed incomplete on first down because the defensive holding was not called.  They then ran for 3 yards.  Aikman said that Rodgers looked very unhappy with the call.  Rodgers was obviously very frustrated with the conservative gameplan that not only doesn’t work, but that doesn’t let him get into a rhythm and the offense get in sync.  Rodgers scrambled on the next play and was pushed out of bounds inside the 1.  There was a blatant helmet-to-helmet hit that was very visible, which was not only dangerous and could have hurt Rodgers badly, but the penalty wasn’t called.  Had the penalty been called, the Packers have a first down inside the half-yardline.  Instead, it was 4th down.  McCarthy kicks the field goal from the 1!  I have always said when you do this, you are being passive, and that carries over.  The odds of scoring are great, and even if you don’t, the odds of you getting the ball back in field-goal range are excellent.  So, the refs not only cost the Packers 4 points with this non-call (the difference in the game), but McCarthy did the same thing.

When it was 14-13 Cincy, Rodgers and McCarthy were arguing on the sidelines.  I don’t know what was said, but it would seem very likely that Rodgers was upset with the conservative gameplan.  During the 15-1 season two years ago when games were close, Rodgers asked McCarthy to stop taking his foot off the pedal, and the Packers threw more and won easily.  It would seem that Rodgers was frustrated with this.  Rodgers was 2 of 9 for 25 yards at this point, with 5:35 left in the second quarter.

The Packers ran on first for 3, ran on second for 2, and threw for the first down.  They then passed on first down and got the first down.  They then passed for a first down.  They then passed for 9-1/2 yards and ran for the first down at the 5.  They ran on first down for 1, got sacked on second down, completed a short pass, and had to kick a field goal.  Again, the first-down run stalled the drive and likely cost them another 4 points.  McCarthy had now cost the Packers two TDs that were turned into field goals.

The Packers were up 16-14 at half, but would have had a large lead had McCarthy not run on drives making no attempt to score, and turning TDs into field goals with conservative playcalling.  This is exactly what I say he does week after week, and the result is the same week after week.  Rather than putting games away early, as he did last week with an aggressive gameplan, he had a conservative gameplan, putting the outcome up for grabs.

First drive of second half:  Pass on first down for 26.  Pass on first and get first down.  Pass on first down and get first down on a penalty.  Pass on first down and get first down on a penalty.  Run on first down and get a first down.  Pass on first down and get a TD.

Next drive:  Pass on first down and get first down.  Pass on first down for 30 yards to Cincy 6.  Run on first down for a loss of 1, but pass for a TD.  Rodgers was hit low at the knees after the pass, but no call.  It could have resulted in a big injury.

So, passing got them a 30-14 lead.

The Packers were given a personal-foul penalty on the extra point, which gave Cincy better field position after the kickoff and contributed to them scoring a TD to cut the lead to 30-21.  As the announcers pointed out, a Bengal player gave the Packer player two cheap shots, and when the Packer player pushed him down, the Packer player got the penalty.  Again, this contributed to a key TD and change of momentum to the Bengals.

I always say the Packers need to be aggressive after the opponent scores, so they can also score and regain the momentum.  The Packers started from their 40.  What does McCarthy do?  He runs on first down, and Rodgers throws an interception.  Once again, a first-down run resulted in a key turnover, and kept the momentum with the Bengals.

On the next drive, the Packers did move the ball by passing, but then Rodgers threw an interception at the Cincy 4.  As I said, his interceptions come in games where he is frustrated with the playcalling.

Up 30-27 in the fourth quarter, the Packers had a chance to score a TD and go up two scores with just a few minutes left.  They ran on first down for a first down.  They ran on first down and passed for the first down.  They passed on first down and got the first down.  They ran on first down for 4, were sacked on second down for a loss of 7, then passed for more than 12 yards, but a few inches short of the first down.  Once again, a first-down run stalled the drive.  The Packers wisely decided to go for it from the Cincy 29.  Prior to the play, I said they absolutely had to run a QB sneak, and could not hand the ball off.  They just needed inches, and it was risky to hand the ball off with 11 defenders probably playing the run.  A QB sneak has a huge probability of success.  What does McCarthy do?  He hands the ball off, the running back fumbles, and Cincy returns it for a TD for a 34-30 lead and the ultimate final score.  Not only did McCarthy call a terrible play, which I said prior to the play not to call, but a first-down run again stalled a drive, led to a turnover and opponent score, and this drive could have won the game.  Instead, McCarthy’s playcalling resulted in this drive “losing” them the game.

Letting the Bengals hang around by not trying to score most of the game backfired as it so often does, and they couldn’t overcome the bad calls, injuries, turnovers, etc.

The Packers drove to the Cincy 20 at the end of the game, but couldn’t score.

Today’s Packer-Redskin game proved everything I have been saying since the early 1990s.  Previous posts prove drive-by-drive why passing on first downs works for the Packers and running on first downs fails (the drive will eventually stall if you keep running on first down), so the theory is easy to prove on a drive basis.  I have been very vocal in maintaining that if the Packers, starting with the Favre era and continuing through Rodgers, threw on first downs and on most plays, they would build up a large lead, which would put the pressure on the opponent, reduce the pressure on the Packers, and take the Packers out of the situation the conservative offensive gameplans continue to put them in–close games, some of which they lose, where a turnover, injury, fluke play, etc. can be the difference.  Allowing the games to be close lets the other team hang around and gain confidence.  I have always said if they would throw on first downs and most plays, they would build big leads and win easily.  Even though the strategy holds on a per-drive basis, I have had very few chances to prove what would happen if they did this the first half or first three quarters when the tone of games are set.  Colleagues counter that the Packers have to run to set up the pass, have to have a balanced offense, have to run to protect the QB, etc.  My point is that Packer QBs can play with less pressure with a big lead, and get into a rhythm when they are aggressive, which means fewer interceptions.  Favre’s interceptions tended to be in close games where he was frustrated with the conservative gameplan and where he felt he had to make a play to win the game.  The most recent example of the Packers doing what I say they must do was the Atlanta playoff game in the 2010 Super Bowl-winning year.  They went into Atlanta (playing on the road) against a team that was favored, and threw on almost 75% of the plays in the first three quarters.  As a result, they scored a lot and won by a lot.  However, that game didn’t seem to be enough proof for people, as it was one game.  A large number of the previous posts on this site through the years have pushed for this strategy.

Today, McCarthy actually used the strategy, which was a huge departure from his normal offensive strategy and his belief that they have to establish the run.  Perhaps it was because their first-string running back is out for the year, and their second-string running back got hurt early in the game and he knew he wouldn’t return.  Regardless, here is what happened against a good Redskins team that made the playoffs last year.

In the first half, the Packers threw 31 passes.  If you count the 3 sacks, which were passing plays, and a TD pass that was called back, they called passing plays on 35 first-half plays.  They had 9 runs in the first half, and if you count the run that was called back because of a holding penalty, they called 10 runs.  So, in the first half, they called passing plays on almost 78% of their plays.  Conventional wisdom, which of course I’ve disagreed with, would say they would be in trouble because they didn’t run to set up the pass and their time of possession would be bad, as they weren’t running.  What was the actual result?  Rodgers was 26 of 31 for 335 yards and 3 TDs.  Had the blatant interference on James Jones been called on the last drive of the half, Rodgers would have been 26 of 30, and probably 4 TDs.  The Packers had 17 first downs, and a time of possession of 18:48, vs. 11:12 for the Redskins.  The score was 24-0 at halftime, and would have been 31-0 if Jones didn’t fumble at the goal-line at the end of the half.  Had the penalty been called, that doesn’t happen and the score is almost definitely 31-0.  This is exactly what I predicted.  Others laugh when I say the Packers could score 30-or-more points in the first half if they would just keep passing, but they did pass and they did score.

Let’s look at first-down playcalling in the first half.  The Packers called passing plays on first down 18 times, which includes a play that was called back.  They ran on first down 4 times–had a holding penalty on the first, ran for 14 on the second, ran for 9 on the third, and ran for 2 on the fourth.  It was obvious that all of the running success came after the passing success set it up.  After the first first-down run where they had the holding penalty, they did not run again on first down until the second quarter when the score was 17-0 Packers.

To start the second half, the Packers ran on first down for no gain on their first possession and punted, then threw on 2 of the 3 first downs on the next drive and scored a TD to go up 31-0.  Again, this is EXACTLY what I have been saying for decades would happen if they would just do this.  With 11:40 to go in the second quarter, Rodgers had thrown for 200 yards and 2 TDs!  With 7:07 left in the half, Rodgers had thrown for 264 yards and 3 TDs, and was 19 of 23!  With 2:41 left in the third quarter, even with two pass-interference penalties not called, Rodgers was 29 of 36 for 414 yards and 4 TDs, and the Packers had over 500 yards of offense!  This was with more than a quarter to play!  He finished 34 of 42 for 480 yards, 4 TDs, and no interceptions.  Again, exactly what I predicted would happen.

So, the question remains.  Since this has held true since the early 1990s and Packer coaches have not realized it, will McCarthy realize it and continue to be aggressive offensively?  In last week’s 6-point loss to the 49ers, he ran on first downs on the first 2 drives and punted, then threw on every play on the third drive and scored an easy TD.  However, he then went back to being conservative.  So, it will be interesting to see what he has learned from this game.

I should also point out that the bears beat Minnesota by one point today, and the Vikings lost the game because they kept kicking to Hester, who set a team record for kickoff-return yardage.  I continue to point out how foolish that is, but teams just don’t get it.  His returns set up one TD and field position for another, well more than the difference in the game.

Prior to explaining how the refs and McCarthy cost the Packers their opening game against the 49ers, I will recap my philosophy because the season just started.  This can be seen in numerous posts below, but should be repeated to start the season.  I have always felt that the Packers’ best chance to win is to pass on first down and pass a lot, building up a big lead, putting pressure on the opponent, and acting as insurance should the Packers suffer injuries/penalties/fluke plays during the game.  Not doing this allows the other team to gain confidence, hang around, and potentially win.  I have also said McCarthy is very conservative, and when he runs on first down, they tend to punt, and when he throws on first down, they tend to score.  I’ve said that you might get a first down or two by running on first down, but the drive will eventually stall.  This has held true starting with the Favre era, but Packer coaches just don’t get it.  Game after game this is proven true.  I’ve also said they need to pass on first downs after the other team scores to score themselves and regain the momentum.  So, let’s look at this game and see what happened.

1.  Packers’ first offensive drive:  Run on first down for 1 yard, sack for -8, pass for 9, and punt.  They ran on first down and punted.

2.  Packers’ second offensive drive:  Run on first down for a loss of 3, back to their 15.  The runner’s facemask was blatantly grabbed for a long time, but the refs didn’t call it.  The Packers should have had a first down at the 30, had the penalty been called.  They passed for 9 and passed for 18 to get the first down.  They then ran on first down for 1, ran on second down for 2, and punted.  At this point, Lacy, their running back, was 4 for 1.  So, McCarthy started the game by running on first downs on the first two drives, and instead of trying to score, punted twice and they were now down 7-0 as a result.  He made no attempt to score on these drives.

3.  Once the 49ers went up 7-0, McCarthy decided to pass.  I’ve also always said they should pass on first downs after the opponent scores to score and regain momentum, but he rarely does this.  The Packers did do this on this possession, as they had a 6-play drive, ALL of which were passes, and scored an easy touchdown.

4.  After holding the 49ers, the Packers got the ball back.  Does McCarthy throw on first down to try to take the lead?  Of course not.  He runs on first down, and the holding penalty makes it first and twenty from their 10.  They then ran again, fumbled, and the 49ers recovered at the Packer 14, eventually getting a touchdown to go up 14-7. Once again, a first-down run backfired and resulted in the opponent scoring a TD.

5.  On the TD drive, the Packers stopped the drive and the 49ers were going to have to settle for a FG, but Matthews committed a late-hit roughing penalty.  The 49ers also committed a personal foul, but the refs made a mistake, and instead of offsetting the penalties bringing up 4th down, they replayed third down, and the 49ers scored a TD.  I said AT THE TIME that the refs blew this, as both penalties were dead-ball fouls.  This was basically the difference in the game, and there will be more about this below, including the NFL’s statement.

6.  At this point, the Packers had 4 drives.  They ran on first downs on 3 of them, resulting in 2 punts and a fumble, the fumble giving the 49ers a TD.  They passed on first downs on one drive, and scored a TD.  Anyone see a familiar pattern here?  This is only what has been happening to the Packers since the early 90s.  Again, this strategy of making no attempt to score had the Packers down 14-7 instead of potentially leading by 7-14 points at this point of the game.

7.  On a later drive, the Packers passed to the 49er 49-yardline, then ran on first down, and after the hold, had first and 20.  Their first-and-20 pass was deflected and intercepted at the S.F. 44.  Again, a first-down run led to a turnover.

8.  The Packers later passed to the S.F. 35, with under 2:00 in the half.  They ran on second down, held again, and had second and 20.  On this drive, the 49ers knew the Packers had to pass, since it started with 1:32 left in the half.  Even knowing they had to pass, they couldn’t stop them.  It was a 62-yard drive, with every play except 2 being a pass.  One of the runs was the holding play mentioned above.  The other was on third-and-one, when they ran for 3.  This drive proved again that when the Packers passed, the 49ers couldn’t stop them.

9.  In the second half, the 49ers scored to go up 21-14.  I’ve said the Packers need to throw on first downs after the opponent scores to score and regain momentum.  What does McCarthy do?  He runs on first down for no gain (Lacy was 6 for 4 at that point), runs on second down for 2, and punts.

10. On the next drive, the Packers got a first down by running, then passed on every play the rest of the drive to score the TD to make it 21-21.  Passing again resulted in a TD, and emphasized the fact that McCarthy wasted so many drives by running on first down.

11. After Kaepernick ran out of bounds at the Packer 10, Boldin leveled a Packer from behind.  No personal foul was called, and the 49ers kicked a FG to go up 24-21.  I’m not saying they wouldn’t have kicked the FG anyway, but it probably would have been a longer kick had the penalty been called.  It would also have been a long way to go for a first down or TD, so it’s also possible they could have turned the ball over, been sacked, etc.

12. The 49ers went up 24-21 with the FG.  Once again, it was important the Packers throw on first down to score, regain the lead, and regain momentum.  What does McCarthy do?  The same thing that had failed all game.  He ran on first for 3, was sacked on second down, and punted.  Can’t McCarthy see a pattern that has held true in every game since the early 90s?

Here is what NFL.com had to say after the game:

Referee admits to error that gave 49ers an extra down

• By Dan      Hanzus
• Around the      League Writer
• Published:      Sept. 8, 2013 at 09:03 p.m.
• Updated:      Sept. 9, 2013 at 12:10 a.m.

The 49ers were the benefactor of an official’s error Sunday, giving San Francisco an extra down on which it scored a touchdown in Sunday’s 34-28 win over the Green Bay Packers.

Head referee Bill Leavy admitted after the game that he mistakenly ruled a replay of third down after offsetting penalties by Packers linebacker Clay Matthews and 49ers offensive tackle Joe Staley followed a Colin Kaepernick scramble in the second quarter.

“On the play where the quarterback (Kaepernick) went out of bounds and was hit late out of bounds, and then there was a subsequent hit by a San Francisco player, the down should have counted,” Leavy said. “The penalties were both dead ball and they should have offset at the spot where the runner went out of bounds. And it would have been fourth down.”

Asked if it should have been fourth-and-2 instead of third-and-6, Leavy replied, “Correct.”

NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy provided further explanation on the play in question, which set up a 10-yard touchdown catch by 49ers wide receiver Anquan Boldin on the next snap.

“The down ended when Kaepernick stepped out of bounds,” McCarthy said. “Both the late hit by Matthews and the unnecessary roughness foul on Staley are considered dead-ball fouls. As a result, the down should have counted and the fouls offset at the dead-ball spot, making it fourth-and-2 at the 6-yard line.

“The officiating crew erroneously offset the fouls as if they were live-ball fouls and replayed third down.”

The instant accountability is nice to see, but it doesn’t change the painful result for the Packers.

Back to my commentary:  Now, there was talk after the game that there should not have been a personal foul call on Staley, as he just wrapped up Matthews and got in his face.  However, the same penalty could have been called on Boldin, who ran into the group of players and committed a personal foul.

On Lacy’s touchdown, well after he crossed the goal line and was on top of the pile, a 49er defender came in and intentionally gave him a helmet-to-helmet shot that knocked him back about two yards.  Far more dangerous than the Matthews play, and of course, no penalty for a head shot or late hit.

So, last year, the Packers were denied a bye and homefield advantage in the playoffs, and a potential Super Bowl win, by the terrible calls in the Seattle game, which everyone saw.  Even without this game, had the Colts game not been stolen, they would have had a bye and homefield advantage.  Once again, yesterday, the Packers have a win stolen against a key rival, and again, this might determine playoff position, etc.  Windows to win championships are rare for teams.  The refs stole 7 championships from the Favre Packers, and are now doing the same thing under Rodgers.  The refs also stole the playoff game Rodgers’ second year, although they probably weren’t good enough to win the Super Bowl that year.

The refs, the NFL, and Mike McCarthy all played key roles in the Packers’ “loss” to the 49ers yesterday in the Divisional Playoffs.

Let’s start with the refs:

1.  The 49ers were flagged for a facemask penalty on an early Packer drive.  It was blatant, the facemask was held for a long time and pulled, and it was easily seen.  The refs decided to pick up the flag and said there was no foul.  Instead of a first down, this left the Packers with a third-and-five, but they did get the first down and scored a touchdown to take a 14-7 lead.

2.  With 2:11 left in the half of a 21-21 game, if a team could score before halftime to take a lead, it would give them some momentum.  On second-and-7 from the 49er 23, Kaepernick scrambled and Sam Shields, while trying to make the tackle, was held, allowing Kaepernick to get a nice gain of 19 yards.  Had the hold been called, and Aikman talked about the hold, it would have been second-and 11 from their own 19 instead of a first down at their 42.  As a result, the 49ers kicked a field goal on the last play of the half to take a 24-21 lead.  This call could have resulted in a 3- to 10-point turnaround at that point of the game.  It also kept the Packer defense on the field longer, helping to tire them out.

3.  With 8:46 left in the third quarter, down 24-21, the Packers had third-and-11 from the 49er 23.  Cobb caught a pass and was tackled at the 15, short of the first down.  The tackler blatantly went helmet-to-helmet and it caused Cobb to fumble (the Packers recovered at the 13).  Had the penalty been called, it would have given the Packers a first down at the 6-1/2 yardline, and a probable TD and a 28-24 lead.  Since it wasn’t called, and again, it was in the open field and easily visible, the Packers had to settle for a field goal and a 24-24 game.  It was 4th-and-1, but McCarthy didn’t go for it and kicked a field goal.  As so often happens when a team holds its opponent to a field goal deep in their territory, the momentum changes and that team scores.  The 49ers did score a touchdown in only 1:09 to go up 31-24, so this non-call made a difference of potentially 14 points and momentum.

Now, the league:

Had the Packers “won” one more game, they would have had homefield advantage and a bye the first playoff week.  That would have forced the 49ers to play the week before and have to win, and also risk injury.  Instead, the Packers had to, and the Packers weren’t able to rest their injured players.  It also would have forced the 49ers to come to Lambeau instead of the game being in S.F., which is a huge difference.  Although the refs also stole the Colts and Vikings games and impacted the first 49er game, if we only talk about the Seattle game, that would have put the game in Lambeau.  The NFL had no integrity in this situation.  Everyone knew the Packers won the game and one of the officials involved later said he learned the rule as a result, so this game could have been easily overturned due to a rules interpretation.  The fact that the league would not right this wrong possibly decided this year’s Super Bowl winner.

Now, things I said BEFORE the game or before plays:

1.  I said before the game that the Packers had to gameplan to stop Kaepernick runs.  I said that Joe Webb of the Vikings hurt them this way the week before, and Kaepernick likes to do this.  He hurt them badly all game, rushing 14 times for 183 yards and 2 TDs before the kneeldowns, setting a rushing record for quarterbacks in any game, regular- or post-season.  He was hurting them with runs from early in the game on, and the Packers never adjusted.  He ran 11 times for 107 yards in the first half!  Troy Aikman mentioned this a number of times, at one point using the term “mind boggling” to describe the Packers’ lack of adjustment.

2.  Early in the game, I said the Packers should not field any punts inside their 10, and should let them bounce, hoping they would go into the endzone.  Shortly thereafter, the Packers scored to go up 14-7, stopped the 49ers, and had momentum and a chance to increase the lead since they were getting the ball back.  The Packers fielded the punt inside the 10, fumbled it, and the 49ers went on to score the tying touchdown, completely reversing the momentum.  The 49ers shortly thereafter went up 21-14 on a touchdown following an interception after a first-down run, so this play completely turned the game around at that point.

3.  I read that slot receivers hurt the 49ers this year, and the Packers had been very successful throwing to Cobb out of the slot all year.  They didn’t do that this game to take advantage of this, and there were times the slants and plays over the middle were there for him from the slot.  This included a third-and-6 in the third quarter when the Packers were only down 7, where Cobb had single coverage with the defender off him and no one else in the area.  The Packers threw elsewhere, and incomplete.

4.  I said before the game that the Packers had to be aggressive offensively and pass on first downs and most downs.  McCarthy’s insistence on establishing the run and balancing the offense hurt them all year and kept their high-powered offense out of sync all year.  It was my hope he would have a gameplan like he had when they beat Atlanta two years ago in the playoffs when he threw on 74% of the plays in the first three quarters and blew Atlanta out.  McCarthy continued to run at the wrong times in this game.  The 49ers kicked a field goal to go up by 3 at half, and the Packers were getting the ball to start the second half.  I said they had to come out passing to score a touchdown, take the lead, and get momentum.  What does McCarthy do?  He runs on first and second down, and they punt.  In Rodgers’ postgame press conference, he mentioned twice how important it was for them to score a touchdown on the opening drive of the second half, and said had they scored a touchdown there to take the lead, they would have been in good shape.  It was obvious how critical this was, but McCarthy came out running.  The Packers held the 49ers and got the ball back.  They went empty backfield (no running backs) for most of their second drive of the second half, and moved downfield easily by passing even though the 49ers knew they had to pass.  They then ran on first down, stalling the drive, and had to kick a field goal.  This was the drive the helmet-to-helmet penalty was not called, but the drive would not have been stopped had they kept passing.  As I mentioned, they tied the game with a field goal, but the momentum change of stopping a team deep in your territory resulted in the 49ers scoring a TD on their next drive.  So, the first two second-half drives, which were critical to take control of the game, were both stalled by first-down runs, and the momentum change helped S.F. score.  There was a drive in the first half when the Packers threw on every play but two (two 3-yard runs), and of course, scored an easy touchdown.

5.  With 5:25 left in the fourth quarter, the 49ers, up two touchdowns, had a fourth-and-1 deep in Green Bay territory at the 18.  If they kicked a field goal, it would have basically ended the game, as the Packers would have been down 3 scores with not a lot of time left.  The 49ers lined up as if they were going for it.  I made the statement that they were only trying to draw the Packers offside, as a field goal is as good as a touchdown in that situation and they wouldn’t give up the scoring opportunity.  McCarthy didn’t tell his linemen not to jump, and they jumped offsides, giving the 49ers a first down at the Packer 13 and eventual touchdown.  Now, you could make the argument (and I would agree) that it was smart to jump offsides, because a field goal would have basically ended the game.  By getting the 49ers to run more plays, there was an opportunity for a turnover.  However, I didn’t see the Packers trying to strip the ball or holding the runners up to try for a turnover.

6.  The Packers had a third-and-5 at their 49 in the fourth quarter when the game was still on the line.  All year I’ve said they need to run high-percentage pass plays in these situations to make sure they get the first down, but McCarthy frequently calls lower-percentage plays and ends up punting.  They threw a bomb on this play and just missed connecting for a touchdown, which would have been okay if they would have gone for it on fourth down.  Since they punted, this was a bad decision, and it was a bad decision to punt.  I said they needed to go for it because their defense was tired and hadn’t been stopping the 49ers, they only needed 5 yards and could pass successfully, and a touchdown could cut the lead to 7.  They punted, and the 49ers went 93 yards and scored a touchdown to go up 21 and end the game.

Yes, the refs played a big part in the outcome.  Yes, the league played a big part in the outcome.  However, despite both of those injustices, the Packers would probably still have won the game if not for McCarthy.  Jim Harbaugh looks at his quarterback’s strengths and devises a gameplan to maximize them.  McCarthy on the other hand, obviously doesn’t realize his quarterback’s strengths, as he continues to devise gameplans to minimize them.  This is the same thing that happened throughout Brett Favre’s career.  When the Packers come out passing on first downs and most downs, they almost always win big, but when they run on first downs and try to be balanced, they struggle.  This has held true since 1992 or 1993, but McCarthy doesn’t understand this.  McCarthy has the best quarterback in the league and the NFL MVP, but he continues to tie his hands the way Favre’s hands were tied throughout his career.  Here is an excerpt from a comment on the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s website:  “Offense in general: When GB has the talent and option of spreading Jennings, Jones, Nelson, Cobb, and Finley, but instead throws on 2nd and short to Harris and on 3rd and short to Kuhn – as Vince Lombardi would yell, “WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON OUT THERE!”  If MM scripts the first 12 or 15 plays, how come on our first possession those are our 2nd and 3rd down calls? Three and out and an abysmal 3rd down conversion rate speaks to our play calling. If you’ve got the finest receiving corps in the NFL and it creates match-up problems for opposing defenses – WE HAVE TO PUT THE PEDAL TO THE METAL AND GO TO OUR STRENGTHS – PUT UP 50 POINTS IF YOU HAVE TO.  Zero points in the second half against Minnesota last week and ten points in the whole 2nd half last night is just ridiculous for our offensive talent.”  I agree, and have been saying this for decades!

On another note, the Broncos lost yesterday’s game because they made the same mistake teams continue to make.  They had the ball, up 7, with not much time left.  If they got a first down, the game would have been over.  Instead, they ran three times, including on third-and-7 for no gain, and punted.  The defense is typically stacked to stop the run in these situations, knowing teams will almost always run.  This strategy puts the game in the hands of a tired defense where the offense is desperate and will be passing, and frequently backfires as a result.  I believe the Patriots lost 2 or 3 games this year due to this.  What happened?  The Ravens got the ball back with 1:09 left in the fourth quarter, scored a tying touchdown, and went on to win in overtime.  I will never understand when a team can end the game by making one play and they refuse to try to do this, giving the other team an opportunity to try to win.

On still another note, Peyton Manning’s ill-advised pass in overtime that was intercepted and cost the Broncos the game should not have been thrown.  Manning has had other multi-interception games in the playoffs, and Tom Brady has had terrible playoff games.  However, despite all the great games Favre has played and won for his teams, he has the reputation for losing games with ill-advised passes, but all these other QBs don’t get this reputation despite doing the same things.  And, the others don’t necessarily win games by the dramatic plays Favre has made to win games.  Manning has 1 Super Bowl win, while Favre has 9.

The refs blatantly stole the Seahawks, Colts, and Vikings game from the Packers.  Had they not stolen today’s Vikings game, even with the other two stolen games, the Packers get a bye in the playoffs.  The Vikings, who “won” the game by 3 points, scored a touchdown on a drive where a key pass for a first down clearly hit the ground.  This gave the Vikings the game.  Where is the integrity in the NFL when everyone can clearly see the pass was incomplete, but because the Packers were out of timeouts and couldn’t challenge the play, it stood?  I’ve always said that when there are obvious bad calls that can be seen in the booth, the booth should advise the refs and the play should be called correctly.  This call resulted in one team (the bears) not making the playoffs, another team (the Vikings) making the playoffs who shouldn’t have, and another team (the Packers) not getting a bye they deserved, forcing them to play an additional game and then go on the road for the second round (should they make it) when a bye would have given them a home game in the second round and no game in the first round.  There is no integrity to outcomes of games that everyone knows are wrong, such as the Packer games against Seattle, Indianapolis, and Minnesota, yet the league allows them to stand.

Now, to McCarthy.  The Packers “lost” by 3 points, so any possession would have been the difference.

He made no attempt to score in the first quarter.  On the Packers’ first possession, they ran on first down for 2 and punted.  The Vikings, already up 3-0, scored a TD to go up 10-0.  McCarthy then ran on first down for no gain, and punted.  These were the first-quarter possessions when the tone of a game can be set, and the Vikings dominated as a result.  They then were down 13-0, again due to the momentum the Vikings had from stopping the Packers each time due to the first-down runs.

The Packers got the ball with 1:07 left in the half at their own 20, easily passed downfield, and kicked a field goal at the end of the half.

To start the third quarter, the Packers got the ball at their 20.  With the exception of 2 runs, they passed on every down and easily scored a touchdown to make the score 20-17, Lions.  They could have been doing this all during the first half.

Down 20-17 and with momentum, the Packers stopped the Lions and the Lions punted.  The Packers passed on first down and got a roughing penalty against the Lions.  They then threw on first down for 11 yards and a first down.  They then ran on first down for 2, ran on second down for 6, had a false start, then fumbled at midfield.  The first- and second-down runs not only stalled the drive and resulted in a turnover, but the Vikings scored a touchdown as a result, making the score 27-17.

Down 10 in the fourth quarter, McCarthy knew he had to pass.  This was the next drive:  Pass on first down for 5, pass incomplete but it should have been completed for a long gain, pass for 5 and a first down.  Pass on first down for 11 and a first down.  Run on first down for 6 and kick a field goal to tie the score at 27.  Another drive stalled by a first down-run.  Again, I always say that when you hold a team to a field goal, the momentum change frequently results in you scoring.  The Vikings did score a TD to take a 34-27 lead.

Down by 7 with 7:54 to play, even McCarthy knew he had to pass.  The Packers started from their own 22.  With the exception of two runs for 11 yards and 1 yard, every play was a pass play and the Packers easily scored the tying touchdown.

The Vikings could not stop the pass and the Packers’ strength is passing, but McCarthy stopped drive after drive by first-down runs.

With 2:00 left in regulation, the Vikings had a third-and-11 from their 27.  If the Packers stop them, they get the ball back and the Vikings couldn’t stop their passing game, so the Packers probably win.  McCarthy decides to rush three, which has burned him time and again during the regular season and playoffs (see previous posts), and since Ponder had time, he completed a pass for 25 yards and a first down.  As a result, the Vikings moved into “winning” field-goal range and kicked the field goal on the last play.

The Packers scored a touchdown on their opening drive, as they passed a lot.  They also passed a lot on their second drive, so of course scored another touchdown; however the refs nullified it with a terrible call.  A Viking defensive lineman fell down, so they called holding on a Packer offensive lineman.  It was a terrible call and not even close to a hold, as the announcers pointed out, but this call changed it from a 14-0 game with TDs on the first two drives, momentum and control of the game, to giving the Vikings momentum from preventing a touchdown and holding the Packers to a field goal.  This momentum change allowed the Vikings to score a touchdown on their next possession, turning a 14-0 game into a 10-7 game with the Vikings having a little momentum.

Now, McCarthy took over.  With a 3rd-and-1 at their own 25, they ran for no gain and punted.  A first-down run then stalled a later drive.  The Vikings then scored on an 82-yard Adrian Peterson run to take a 14-10 lead.  The Packers needed to be aggressive to regain the lead and momentum.  What does McCarthy do?  He runs on first and second down and punts.  Rodgers, at this point, completed 12 of 14 passes, so the passing game was working as usual.

The Vikings should have been called for a blatant block in the back on Peterson’s 48-yard run to open the second half, which even the announcers mentioned.  The Packers held, and on a later drive, again trying to regain the lead, a first-down run stalled the drive and they kicked a field goal to still trail 14-13.

After 3 quarters, Ponder had only 5 completions, but the Packers were only up by 6 since the ref’s call and McCarthy’s running kept the game close.  With 5:28 to go, the Packers, up 6, drove to the Viking 10, where a first-down run for 1 yard again stalled a drive, resulting in a field goal.  With 3:32 to play in the game, Ponder had completed only 5 passes and none to a wide receiver, but McCarthy and the refs kept the game close, allowing Minnesota to still have a chance.  Once again, the Packers played a close game with a team they are much better than, even with all of the Packers’ injuries.

And, by the way, Adrian Peterson ran 21 times for 210 yards. Even if you take out the 82-yard TD run, he still averaged 6.4 yards/carry. What did this get the Vikings?  14 points. Running doesn’t lead to points. The time of possession was 38:30 for the Packers and 21:30 for Minnesota, so there goes that argument.

The Packers played a Ram team that they are much better than, but the score was only 10-6 Packers at halftime, as Mike McCarthy’s strategy allowed the Rams to hang around.  This is a dangerous strategy, as an injury, turnover, etc. can turn around a close game.  The Packers went into this game with key starters injured.  First-down passes are the key to building a big lead early when the tone of a game can be set.

On the Packers’ first drive, they ran on first down for a loss of 1, were sacked on second down for a loss of 4, passed for 8 yards, and punted.  The drive was stalled by a first-down run.

Down 3-0, they passed on first down for 15 yards and a first down/passed on first down for 9, ran for a loss of 2, passed for 52 yards and a first down/were going to pass on first down but there was a defensive penalty which gave them a first down at the three, passed on first down for a TD.

Up 10-3, they ran on first down for 2, passed for 10 and a first down/ran for 3, passed for 4, passed for 8 and a first down/ran for 3, passed for 6, passed incomplete, punted.  Another drive stalled by a first-down run.

Up 10-6 with 40 seconds left in the half, from the Packer 15: Pass for 13/false start, pass for 14, pass for 18/pass for 5, spike to stop clock, miss a 58-yard field goal.  They moved the ball by passing even though the Rams knew they had to pass.

First drive of second half:  Run for 1, running play but Rodgers kept the ball and ran for 1, pass for 18/pass for 13/run for 9, run for 0, pass for 17/run for 2, pass for 2, pass for 9/pass for 3, pass for 5 and a TD.

Rodgers was 20 of 22 at this point, and the lead would have been much greater had he been passing more on first down.  They were fortunate to convert the third downs they did.

Next drive:  Pass sideways for 0, run for 15/run for 4, run for 3, pass for 2, punt.  First-down run stalled drive.

Next drive:  Dropped first-down pass, passed for first down but holding so 2nd-and-20, passed for 13, Rams offsides, pass for 6/pass for 6, pass incomplete, pass for 9 and first down at the 6/run for 1, run for 0, pass incomplete, kick field goal.

Had the Packers scored a touchdown on the previous drive, they would have gone up 24-6, making it a three-score game in the fourth quarter, and basically ending the game.  McCarthy’s decision to run on first and second down when they got to the 6 stalled the drive, and as a result, they only kicked a field goal to go up 20-6.  The Rams, with the momentum of stopping the Packers on first and goal, scored a touchdown to make it a one-score game at 20-13.  This is the danger of letting a team hang around by being conservative.  Having said all this, on the third-down pass prior to the field goal, James Jones was blatantly held in the endzone for a long period of time, which the announcers pointed out, and which prevented him from catching the touchdown pass.  Had this been properly called as it was blatant, the Packers have a first-and-goal from the 1, and go up three scores to end the game.

After the Rams scored a touchdown to pull within 7, it was very important for the Packers to regain momentum by throwing on first downs.  What does McCarthy do?  Run on first down for 0, pass for 11/run for 3, pass incomplete, pass for 8/run for 2, pass for 16/run for 5, run for a loss of 4, pass for 39 and a TD.  They were able to convert after first-down runs that didn’t do well through the passing game that the Rams couldn’t stop, so they did score, but most times drives are stalled by doing this.

One additional point.  I’m very happy to see that a very well-respected national publication like the Wall Street Journal agrees with me that outcomes should be reversed when the officials steal games.  In the October 22, 2012 WSJ, this is what it said:  “The Packers have lifted themselves out of bed and now sit at 4-3–or 5-2, if you don’t count, you know, that stuff that happened in Seattle.”  Of course, had the WSJ realized the refs also stole the other two losses, they would have said the Packers are 7-0.

The replacement refs, having served their purpose of stealing a game from the Packers (see posts regarding last week’s Packer-Seahawk game), were dismissed by the NFL, and the regular refs were brought back so they could fulfill their weekly duty of trying to steal games from the Packers.  What happened today with the regular refs was ridiculous, and was mentioned prominently during the game and on the ESPN highlight shows.

Let’s review the terrible calls in today’s game:

1.  The Packers were up 7-0, and the Saints scored a touchdown when their receiver, Marques Colston, committed offensive interference by pushing the defender down so he could catch the 20-yard “touchdown pass.”  Instead of penalizing the Saints 10 yards, the “touchdown” stood, tying the game.

2.  With the Packers up 21-14, the Packers stopped the Saints on the opening drive of the second half, as a third-and-five pass from the Saints’ 31 was incomplete, which would have forced the Saints to punt.  The ball hit the ground, but the refs ruled the pass complete.  The Packers challenged and lost, even though the ball hit the ground, and the Saints’ drive was extended, keeping the Packer defense on the field much longer than it should have been, which is tiring, and giving the Saints an undeserved field goal.  As Greg Jennings was hurt and out of the game and other Packers were hurt during the game, these 10 points of gifts kept the Saints in the game and nearly cost the Packers the game.  The score was now 21-17 Packers, and 10 of the Saints’ 17 were not legitimate.

3.  The Packers, after scoring a touchdown to go up 28-27 with 7:00 left in the fourth quarter, kicked off to the Saints.  The Saints’ returner clearly fumbled the ball while upright and the Packers recovered at the Saints’ 28 yardline.  The refs ruled the returner was down by contact!  It was clearly a fumble and called a “blown call” by the announcers.  Not only did this prevent the Packers from probably scoring points since they were moving the ball well and should have started at the Saints’ 28, but it allowed the Saints’ drive to continue as they tried to kick a winning field goal late in the game.  They did attempt a field goal from 48 yards, but missed it.

4.  When the Saints lined up for a 53-yard field goal to try to take the lead with 2:58 left in the fourth quarter, they false started, but the penalty was called on the Packers for being offsides.  Instead of having to either attempt a 58-yard field goal, go for the first down, or punt, the Saints were allowed to try a 48-yard field goal as a result of this bad call, which is a distance that isn’t that difficult to make.

All of these calls had a significant impact upon the game, and nearly cost the Packers a game for the second straight week.

Let’s also not forget Mike McCarthy rushed three men on third-and-17 from the Saints’ 39, allowing them to complete a 23-yard pass, keep the drive alive, and kick a field goal to go up 27-21.  McCarthy continues to get burned when rushing three men on third-and-longs (and Hail Marys, both of which helped cost them the Giant playoff game last year), but he continues to do it.

A response to a friend:

The Packers, by virtue of beating Dallas, are not only on a 16-game winning streak, but now have a 2-game lead on Dallas with the tiebreaker with 4 games to go, for homefield advantage in the playoffs.   Despite the fact that since 1993 only 2 of the 8 regular-season Packer-Cowboy games were at Lambeau, the Packers are now close to clinching homefield advantage.

I now know why the NFL restricted the viewers on NFL Network and made sure this game was on the network–they wanted to minimize the number of people who saw the game, as they knew in advance there would be a public outcry based on the officiating if the masses were able to see it.

Let’s take a look at the officiating in tonight’s game:

1. On the Packers’ first drive, the Packers had a third-and-two and threw a pass to Driver in the endzone for a potential TD and a 7-0 lead.  Since the defender was beaten, he ran the last 5 yards by putting a hand up in Driver’s face, without turning around, which is interference.  It prevented Driver from making the catch, and should have resulted in a first down at the Dallas 1, costing the Packers a touchdown.  They did kick the FG.
2. On Dallas’ first drive, after what should have been a Packer TD (see above), Terrell Owens caught a pass, and Al Harris immediately ripped it out of his hands and had clear possession before going out of bounds.  The ref right there immediately called it Packer ball, but another ref who had no view of the play overruled this.  McCarthy asked for a review, and replays clearly showed it was the Packers’ ball at their 37, but the refs said Owens’ progress was stopped.  This was ridiculous, as Owens had the ball for less than half a second before Harris took it away.  Last Sunday, Adrian Peterson of the bears was stopped at the Denver 2, but they let him continue for 10 seconds so he could score.  His progress was not stopped after all this time, but Owens’ progress was stopped after a half second.  This was an incredibly terrible call, and instead of it being Packer ball with what should have been a 7-0 lead, Dallas kicked a field goal to tie the game at 3.
3. In the first 5 minutes of the game, the refs set the tone by giving Dallas a lot of momentum.  They took away a Packer TD, gave Dallas a field goal, and changed the momentum from the Packers to Dallas.  Considering this was a 3-point game midway through the 4th quarter, these calls were huge difference makers.
4. Midway through the 4th quarter, with Dallas up by 3 thanks to the refs, Dallas threw a 42-yard pass to the Packer 5, which was incomplete.  The receiver and defender got their legs tangled, and the ref right there immediately gave that signal and said no interference.  A long time after the play, for the second time, a ref from far away came over and overruled the ref that was right on top of the play and called it interference.  This gave Dallas a first down at the 5, they scored a TD, and went up 10.  This effectively ended the game.  Dallas had not scored in the second half up to this point, so again, this changed the momentum.  The announcers continuously during the game and continuously on the postgame show talked about this being a horrible call, and one that had a major effect upon the outcome.
5. With 5:03 left and the Packers down 10 due to these calls, they ran for a first down at the Dallas 34.  The refs gave the Packers a bad spot, so instead of having a first down and a chance for a TD, it was 4th and inches and they kicked a long FG to pull within 7.  The Packers would normally have challenged this call, but they were out of challenges due to the bad calls earlier in the game.  This is another rule I’ve complained about for years.  How can you limit a coach’s challenges when one team continuously gets bad calls?  The way things are going, in some future game, McCarthy will be out of challenges before the national anthem is over.

This game was given to the Cowboys by the refs, which might affect the location and thus outcome of a future playoff game.  Despite McCarthy’s ridiculous early gameplan of throwing bombs instead of high-percentage passes (which were successful all game and season and which can set up occasional bombs), which the announcers also questioned a number of times, the Packers had an excellent chance to win, which the refs took away.

Sal Palantonio and others who say Favre is overrated are  looking strictly at certain plays and stats.  Some of his interceptions  might look worse than other QBs’, but an interception is an interception.   How many times do other QBs throw into coverage?  But, because they might not be scrambling, it might not look as bad.  As I point out on a recent post, they need to look at his offensive coordinators.   He’s been handcuffed his entire career.  The reason his stats are better  this year than any of his MVP years is because they are finally letting him  throw on early downs.  It’s absolutely amazing what he accomplished all  these years with conservative coordinators.  Please also see my  earlier post regarding a few years ago when everyone said he should retire,  they were 1-4, offensive coordinator Tom Rossley was hospitalized, Sherman  decided to let him throw, and they went 10-6, he threw for over 4000 yards,  etc.  Put Favre in New England’s or Indy’s offense, and he’ll outperform  both those QBs.  Brady’s stats never came close to Favre’s average  year until he got Moss.  Manning is great, but so is Favre.  Put  Manning on those Packer teams with those coordinators and see what he  does.  Many of Favre’s interceptions come when the Packers are behind,  which they wouldn’t be if they had thrown earlier in the game.  Manning was  allowed to build leads by throwing, so he didn’t have to play desperately.   This year, only 22% of Favre’s passes came when the Packers were trailing, as  opposed to a “whopping” 47.3% last year.  New England and Indy rarely  trail, and now that they let Favre throw on early downs, the Packers rarely  trail.  Furthermore, how many times do you watch teams that are out  of a game not do everything they can to get back in the game?   Favre hates to lose, and he will do whatever he can, right or wrong, to try to  win.  I respect that much more than a QB who won’t take chances to try to  win so he can protect his stats.  He’s  playing with young receivers, young running backs, a young and changing  offensive line, etc., and he keeps the team together.  Has Brady or Manning  ever done anything with a bad team?  IF THE REFS  HADN’T STOLEN ABOUT 8 SUPER BOWL VICTORIES FROM THE PACKERS, THEY WOULD BE  WAIVING RULES AND PUTTING HIM IN THE HALL OF FAME WHILE HE IS STILL  ACTIVE.  It’s a crime what the refs have done to his  teams.