I don’t care about preseason games (other than injuries), but thought I’d watch the first half of the Colt-bear game to see if anything had changed. Those of you on the previous e-mail list know that for many years I’ve been saying teams that throw on first down get first downs, and teams that run on first down stall drives. I’ve also said for years that this is particularly true against the bears, because the bears are in a run defense on first down. As you also know, prior to the first game last year, I said you never punt or kick to Hester, but punt high so he has to fair catch, and squib kick, because even though you’ll give up some field position, the bear offense will go nowhere.
I also said you can’t let the bears’ special teams beat you, which they can. You need to make the bear offense beat you, which they almost never can.
So, having brought everyone up to speed, let’s review the first half of the Colt-bear game tonight. These stats are for the entire half, and hold true regardless of whether the starters or subs were in.
These are the Colts’ offensive series in the first half:
1. Throw for 20 yards and a first down.
2. Run and subsequently punt.
3. Throw for 11 yards and a first down.
4. Run and turn the ball over on downs.
5. Throw–got first down.
6. Throw for 17 yards and a first down.
7. Throw–got a touchdown.
8. Run and subsequently punt.
9. Throw–got first down.
10. Throw–got first down.
11. Run–threw for a touchdown.
12. Throw–got first down.
13. Throw for about 15 yards and a first down.
14. Throw–didn’t try to get a first down as time was running out. Just tried to get into easier FG range, which they did.
If you don’t count the last series when they just wanted to get the ball into easier FG range, here is the summary:
Throws on first down: 9 times, ALL of which resulted in a first down on that series.
Runs on first down: 4 times, 3 of which resulted in turning the ball over to the bears–1 where they scored a TD by throwing.
DOES ANYONE FINALLY SEE A PATTERN HERE?
Now, let’s look at my statement about not letting the bear special teams beat you, and making their offense try to beat you. The game was 17-17 at half. Let’s look at the bears’ 17 points:
1. First FG was a result of a long kickoff return.
2. First TD was a result of a long Devin Hester punt return.
3. Second TD was a result of the Colts fumbling the kickoff.
I ask again, why would a team put themselves into a position where the bears’ special teams could beat them? This happened over and over last year, but it seems no one takes notice.
Instead of spending millions on scouting and game films, why doesn’t each team assign one person to watch all of the games of one of their opponents for that year and realize these things?