This is a response to a friend:
You are correct that I’m alone in many of my points of view. I don’t feel that makes them wrong. I knew it was easy to attack the 46 for years, but watched teams continue to run into it. You say teams and coaches aren’t stupid and adjust, but I don’t see this happening, and if it does, it takes years for them to figure out simple things. Coaching to me is coming up with the best strategy to try to win, and having the ability to adjust if necessary. I see coaches over and over continuing to do things that don’t work, and that does upset me. Coaches are very slow to learn, and I think they’re very slow to learn on punts and kickoffs, although I think some are finally starting to get it. Everyone said the Packers’ effective running helped them against the Eagles, when I know very clearly that it is what nearly cost them the game. So, yes, I’m alone in many of my opinions, but that doesn’t make them wrong. I think I’ve been pretty good at predicting what will happen when teams use certain strategies. And, if I can do this, what are the coaches doing? Shouldn’t they know what will happen if I, sitting at home watching on TV, know?
Many people felt the Bartman play cost the Cubs. I clearly showed via the video that it was fan interference, and if called, the Cubs are in the World Series and at that point in time were the best team in baseball. It might have only been for a few weeks, but that’s when the Series was played. Whether or not the Cubs should have overcome it and subsequently choked is beyond the point in my opinion–they shouldn’t have had to overcome it, just as all the playoff teams playing the Sox in 2005 shouldn’t have had to overcome those calls. Just because the Cubs did overcome the bad calls in the Braves series is not a reason to deny they were robbed in the Florida series.
I think I’ve been very consistent with my comments, and I do say these things before the games. You say coaches aren’t stupid and will adjust. I don’t see that. Did Carroll adjust today when Cutler had 10 seconds to throw on every pass? They got absolutely no pressure at all on him. If that’s the case, adjust and blitz or accept you won’t get pressure and rush 2 guys, dropping 9. Doing what they did over and over allowed Cutler to look great and pick them apart, with receivers getting wide open. If it’s not working, adjust. You give coaches all this credit, but he never adjusted. That’s what frustrates me. These guys keep doing what doesn’t work and don’t change. At least make the other team adjust to try to stop you–stop doing what isn’t working. I never see teams be successful running on first down against the bears, and do see them be successful passing. It amazes me that teams continue to come out running, when it never works. Today is a perfect example. You know I feel the tone of games can frequently be set early, and today is a perfect example of that, too. Let’s look at how the game started. The Seahawks ran on first down on their first possession, punted, and the bears scored a TD. They threw on first down on the second possession, and completed a 14-yd pass. They threw (technically a lateral) on the next play, which was a first down, and got 13 yards. They threw on the next play, which was a first down, and the receiver was open and dropped an easy pass at the bear 25. So, you can see, these plays were open. They had a fourth-and-one from the bear 40 and punted. I would have gone for it. The next possession, they ran on first down, punted, and the bears scored a TD. So, as I predicted, these first-down runs resulted in a 14-0 bear lead, and set the tone of the game, giving the bears confidence and putting the Seahawks in a hole. To start the second half, they ran on first down, punted, and the bears scored a TD. Do you see the pattern here? It’s a momentum-changing thing for the bears when teams run on first down. Whether we can fully understand the reason or not, or whether or not it even makes sense, the fact is that this is continually the result when teams do this, yet coaches continue to run on first down against the bears.
It’s easy to say McCarthy is a great coach since they’ve been decimated with injuries and are in the NFC championship game. My point is that if I was calling the plays, they would be 16-0. I’ve pointed out the wrong things he does in advance all the time. Does this make him worthless? No, but it does cost them significantly. If I throw out everything else he’s done wrong and only talk about the first Packer-bear game where he made idiotic decision after idiotic decision, all of which I stated prior to the game, including punting to Hester who returned one for a TD, this game alone cost the Packers hosting next week’s game.
Atlanta didn’t get greedy on the pass interception. They were down 7 and were trying to get in FG range to cut it to 4. It was a bad pass, but would anyone say they should have tried a 53-yd FG and not taken one more shot to get closer? I think going for extra yardage was very smart, but the pass he threw was terrible. Sure it was a key play, but I don’t think it was a bad coaching decision.
I didn’t say if Seattle came out passing that they would win the game. What I did say is that their chances to win would be increased significantly if they threw on first downs. They didn’t really attack downfield, and it was obvious some of their players, like Mike Williams, didn’t want to play. The last time I saw such a lack of effort and desire was the second half of the Tampa Bay-bear game we went to for the opening game of 1985. Their receivers wouldn’t fight for balls and didn’t make great efforts to catch them. Does that mean the bears wouldn’t have won anyway? No, but had Seattle come out passing, I think the game takes a very different tone, and anything can happen.
All a team needs to do is what I say, and I’d have no excuse. It seems like when teams do what I say, they have success. New England is an example. So is the Jets. If teams did what I said they should do and lost, what could I say? Obviously, nothing. That’s why I keep saying it. Teams keep doing the opposite of what I say, and it backfires, and I then point it out. Do you really think McCarthy was smart to keep running the ball against the bears a few weeks ago, resulting in the bears almost tying the game at the end? If you were the Packer coach, would you have done the same thing? I’m guessing not, and even if you wanted to see if you could run on the bears, once you saw it wasn’t working (23 for 60), I know you would have changed your strategy.
Interesting that you said I probably think the Packers could have scored 60 by throwing more. I got an e-mail from a friend today, who said: “Why did the Packers run on first down so much? Or was that my misconception? Just throw the ball 60 times next and they will score about 60.” You both mentioned 60! The truth is I was pretty happy with McCarthy’s offensive gameplan yesterday, as he did throw a lot. That’s the reason they scored over 40 points, which I tell you is what will happen if they do throw a lot. When teams eventually do what I say they should, the results I predict are there.
You probably just think that it was the Packers’ night last night, but I firmly believe had they come out emphasizing the run, the game could have been very different. Every game where they do emphasize the run is a low-scoring game that can go either way.
McCarthy’s giving Atlanta 11 points early could have had a significant impact on the game, just as Carroll’s first-down running gave the bears a 14-0 lead and set the tone today. Just because the Packers overcame it doesn’t mean these weren’t critical coaching mistakes. You discount the first half of games, but today’s bear game was a great example of the first half determining the outcome. McCarthy let them take a 14-7 lead. What if the Packers have a key injury at that point? What if there is a fluke turnover right after that and it’s 21-7? A good coach doesn’t put his team in positions like this with bad decisions. Again, these are all decisions that I say prior to the games they shouldn’t do. So, when they do them and it backfires, yes, I am going to talk about it.
A coach’s role is to have the smartest gameplan possible, giving your team the best possible chance to win, while having the ability to adjust as necessary. I rarely see this happen with the bears’ opposing coaches, and McCarthy, although he has his good moments such as last night’s offensive gameplan against Atlanta and the defensive gameplan against the bears, frequently costs the Packers games by bad strategy. How many times will he get burned by rushing 3 on third-and-long before he stops doing it? What did Carroll do today to stop the bears’ passing attack? It was obvious early he had to blitz or rush 2, but he never changed. I know I’m repeating myself, but these things frustrate me so much because they are obvious. Of course my preference would be to blitz and not give the QB so much time, but I’m giving him the option of rushing 2 just to show that there are alternatives to try when things aren’t working. Did McCarthy ever adjust from the press coverage or the idiotic offensive gameplan in the NFC championship against the Giants? No, and it cost them a Super Bowl victory. What did McCarthy do in that bear night game Favre’s last year? Favre is 21 for 23 and the Packers march all first half. He completes a 13-yd pass to the bear 20 to start the second half. McCarthy then runs and they lose, prompting Hub to call him a coward. A perfect example of a coach adjusting away from what’s working instead of waiting until the opponent shows they can stop you. If James Jones didn’t fumble twice in the first half by Tillman strips (again, failure to prepare, as anyone who watches bear games know Tillman does this), the game is over by halftime, even though you don’t think games are decided in the first half. Of course, today’s was.