This week’s Jets-Patriots game proved that Eric Mangini belongs to the large group of NFL coaches that doesn’t understand game strategy. This game proved so much of what I’ve been saying about the NFL. This was a huge game for the Jets. If they won, they would be 7-3 and in first place, and since they would have split with N.E., would not have lost the head-to-head first tiebreaker. If they lost, they would be 6-4, a game behind N.E., and having been swept by N.E., would have lost that tiebreaker. So, what does Mangini do?
Despite having Brett Favre as his QB, he runs on most first downs in the first half. The Jets did have a 24-6 lead, but that was because they completed passes later in those series that there is no guarantee of continuing to complete. When you’re in a third-down situation, you get one chance to pass for a first down. If you pass on first down, you get three chances to get a first down. Running on first down will stall drives. The Jets ended up getting first downs early as a result of passes after these first-down runs, but it’s taking a big chance to think that can continue. Of course, Mangini stayed conservative until the end of the game, and this philosophy allows the other team to hang around. This is exactly what happened, as the Patriots started passing on most downs, moved the ball well, and tied the game at 24. The Jets let a game they had control of slip away by continuing to be conservative. The Jets had only 2 first downs in the second half to this point due to the first-down runs. Once the Patriots tied the game in the 4th quarter, the Jets then allowed Favre to throw, and of course scored a TD to take a 31-24 lead with 3:14 to play.
The Jets got the ball back after that, and after 2 runs, had a third-and-two at their own 30. N.E. was out of timeouts, so a first down would have ended the game. Putting the game in the hands of your defense when the other team is desperate and passing is always a huge risk. Cassel threw for 400 yards, so Mangini could see how he was passing at will against their defense. A safe short pass for the first down ends the game. What does Mangini do? He runs up the middle for nothing, punts, and the Patriots score a TD at the end to tie. Let’s see what else Mangini did on that drive.
The Patriots were starting from their own 38 with 1:04 left. Mangini’s mistake was rushing three men, which gave Cassel extra time. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen this tactic work, as it’s very difficult to get any pressure on the QB and it gives the receivers a lot of time to get open. The Patriots kept passing and scored to tie the game.
In overtime, realizing their defense was probably tired, Mangini let Favre throw and he moved them downfield into field goal range for the win. Once they got into short field goal range, they ran 3 times. Had he let Favre throw earlier, the game wouldn’t have been close. Despite running on first down all night, Favre was 26 for 33 for 258 yards with 2 TDs and no interceptions. He would have been 27 for 33 with 3 TDs if the tight end hadn’t dropped a TD pass while open in the endzone. So, if your QB is hot and playing well, why be conservative to hold down your scoring and let the other team hang around? Favre completed almost every pass he threw in the first half, but Mangini continued to run. The Patriots had drives that stalled in the 4th quarter, or they could have won the game.
On the first play of overtime from their own 2o, Favre was sacked for a 5-yard loss. I wasn’t concerned, because since the first-down play was a passing play, the chances of getting a first down are much higher. Favre did complete a third-and-fifteen pass for a first down to keep the drive alive.
On a side note, this game illustrates why I feel the NFL overtime rule is unfair. Both teams should get a chance to have the ball. Defenses are tired at that point, and I believe it is unfair for a team to possibly not get the ball. The Packers lost two weeks ago to Tennessee in overtime because they also lost the coin flip.