Readers of this space are well aware that I believe passing on first downs results in scoring, and running on first downs results in punting. I’ve always said that teams are in a run defense on first down. I’ve also always said that if you run the ball, you don’t score, thus keeping the game close and allowing the other team to hang around and possibly win. The Philadelphia Eagles beat the Minnesota Vikings 26-14 in a playoff game today. Let’s review the Eagles’ offensive gameplan.
The Eagles threw on 11 first downs, and got a first down all 11 times. They ran on first down 14 times, and got a first down 4 times. Let’s look at those 4 series:
- Run on first down for no gain. Pass on second down for 12 yards.
- Run on first down for 2 yards. Pass on second down for 13 yards.
- Run on first down for 1 yard. Pass on second down for 12 yards.
- Run on first down for 3 yards. Pass on second down for 12 yards.
Even when they ran, they gained very little and got the first downs by passing. Westbrook ran 20 times for 38 yards, or 1.9 yards/carry. In total, the Eagles ran 22 times for 65 yards, which is 2.95 yards/carry. McNabb was 23 for 34 for 300 yards, which is 8.82 yards/attempt. The 1960s “you have to run the football to win” statement heard today is ridiculous, and was ridiculous back then, too. Back then, everyone ran the ball, so of course the better-running team would win. When the Chargers and 49ers started throwing the ball, no one could stop them.
This is a common occurrence, but coaches just don’t get it. They can’t even see this pattern during the game when first-down passes work and first-down runs don’t. They don’t see it during the game, and they don’t see it afterward when evaluating the game, because they do the same thing week after week. The Eagles led by only 2 points (16-14) with less than 7:00 to play because of the ridiculous offensive gameplan. The first-down runs kept the game close, and gave the Vikings opportunities to win.
1. Jeffrey on January 6th, 2009 3:01 pm
Some of this is true, and some isn’t. For example, Westbrook had bad number and McNabb had good numbers on Sunday, but Westbrook picked up 71 yards on a screen pass, which is really a run, given that the receiver has to do almost everything. It’s highly unusual for a team to complete every pass on first down (or any down for that matter), so Philly going 11 for 11 is very rare. Also, Philly had a veteran QB and Minnesota had an almost rookie playing his first playoff game, so you know the numbers would be skewed towards Philly.
2. Larry on January 6th, 2009 11:21 pm
I disagree that a screen pass is like a run. A screen pass is much more effective, because you don’t have a running back running into a line with 7 or more guys waiting. Yes, 11 for 11 is very rare, but first-down passing is far more successful than first-down running. Your comment that Philly had an experienced QB while Minnesota had an almost-rookie QB proved my point. Even with the huge discrepancy in the QBs, it was only a 2-point game with under 7:00 left because Philly did not take advantage of its better QB since they ran on most first downs. Had they thrown on most first downs, they would have put the game away much earlier. Their run-first strategy could have cost them the game, and costs many teams many games.