Response to a friend talking about luck:
I agree that dumb coaching, dumb general managing, etc. are part of the team. However, refs are not, and when refs steal games, as they did to the Packers in the bear and Cowboy games, I will reverse those outcomes. Those are things that can be corrected with replay, yet aren’t due to the flaws and incompleteness of the replay system. Dumb things a team brings on itself, they deserve, but in a game, one team shouldn’t have to overcome the officiating.
Regarding lucky plays in the Packer games, you look at one play at the end and say it’s lucky. What about other things that happened during the game? What if a Packer receiver dropped a key third-down pass that would have kept alive a drive that would have resulted in a TD? Is that any different than fumbling a punt? It might be lucky that the Eagle returner made a mistake and fumbled, but it’s still lucky for them that McCarthy was trying to establish the run. What’s the difference if a coach makes a dumb move or a player makes a bad play?
Look at the Packer-Ram game Sunday. Twice early in the game, the Packers threw long on third and one and third and three, instead of a high-percentage pass to get the first down. The game was 14-14 early, so these were key plays. It wouldn’t have been 14-14 had the Packers run smart plays on third and short. Had the Packers lost, would you say the Rams were lucky that instead of the Packers putting the game away early, they made stupid coaching decisions to keep the Rams in the game?
Now, let’s talk about last year, since you brought this up. I’ll tell you the difference between the Packers and the bears. The Packers, which you say had essentially the same team, had a completely new defense and offensive line last year, and it took the rookies almost 3/4 of the season to get the experience they needed. They didn’t play well in the beginning, but then turned it around. The Packers missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker, and the game they lost before winning their last 4 was against Buffalo, when they outgained them 500 yards to 100, dominated the game, but lost. So, they could easily have made the playoffs. In addition, they didn’t have as aggressive a passing gameplan as they do this year, so that also hurt them. In summary, the experience the young guys got (they are the second youngest team in the league), plus the passing gameplan this year are why the Packers have won 18 in a row. I’m sure if they still had Ahman Green, they would have been running much more early and this would have hurt them.
Now, to the bears. Yes, the bears have been decimated by injuries and this has affected their record a lot. I heard a stat that of the 10 most injured teams, of which the bears are one, only Indy will make the playoffs. Of the 10 least injured teams, 8 will make the playoffs, and 6 will win their division. However, let’s look beyond this. As I pointed out prior to the Miami game last year, when Miami had just been badly beaten by a poor Packer team the week before in Miami, and when Miami was coming to Soldier Field with a horrible record to play an undefeated bear team that won every home game by 30 points, if Miami would pressure Grossman, throw on first down, and not kick to Hester, they would destroy the bears. I was laughed at prior to the game, Miami did do this, and it was 31-13 Miami. If Arizona doesn’t kick to Hester, if other teams don’t kick to Hester, if teams pressured Grossman, if teams knew, as Indy did, that Grossman liked to throw deep on first down, if teams threw on first down, etc., the bears would not have been 13-3, but probably 8-8 to 9-7. Seattle would have beaten them in the playoff game if they didn’t allow the first-down-bomb TD to Berrian, OR if Alexander and Hasselbeck didn’t mess up an exchange on 4th and 1, if they had thrown more on first down, etc. New Orleans did beat the bears, in a game that was obviously fixed. I’ll review the tape with you any time. Don’t forget, despite the bad calls, it was a 4-point game in the 4th quarter. The bears were not that good last year–other teams made them look good. Now that some coaches have figured out not to kick to Hester, some figured out to pressure the bear QB, etc., they don’t look that good. So, you can blame the coaching staff, and they do deserve a lot of blame, but 5-9 isn’t that far from the record the bears should have had last year and makes sense considering their injuries this year.
In 1985, the bears played the Giants in their first playoff game and won 21-0. I believe a Giant receiver (tight end?) dropped a wide-open touchdown pass in the endzone when it was 0-0, and then shortly after that, Sean Landeta whiffed on a punt, giving the bears a TD. This is a 14-point turnaround in a 21-point game, so these LUCKY plays were huge.