Jaguars’ Gameplan Gives Game To bears

I continue to say the tone of NFL games is frequently set in the first half or three quarters of the game.  When teams throw on first down against the bears, they get first downs, but when they run, drives stall.  The bears are in a run-prevent defense on first downs.  If a bear opponent runs on first downs, they are making no attempt to score, which allows the bears to hang around, get confidence, and take advantage of turnovers, injuries, etc.  Cutler tends to start slowly anyway, so being aggressive offensively and getting a lead on the bears makes the game completely different.

Let’s look at the Jaguars’ gameplan.  I know they are not a great passing team, but their only chance to beat the bears was to pass on first down and most downs.  Their receivers were open.  Here is their gameplan:

First possession:  Run on first down for no gain, run on second down for 4, punt.

Second possession:  Throw on first down (receiver open, pass dropped), run on second down for 1, throw on third down (receiver open, pass dropped), punt.

Third possession:  Run on first down for a loss of 3, get first down on a pass.  Run for 20 on first down.  Pass incomplete on first down, run on second for a loss of 4, pass for first down.  Pass incomplete on first down, run on second down for 2, pass on third down for a first down at the 12.  Run on first down and false start, so first and 15.  Two incomplete passes and a short pass, then kick a field goal.

Fourth possession:  Start from own 3.  Run on first down for 1, punt.

Fifth possession:  Run on first down for 1, throw on second down for 8, run for first down.  Throw on first down for 19, but called back for holding, so first and 20.  Run on first down for 2, pass on second down for 11, pass for 10 on third down for a first down.  Run for 1 on first down, pass for 34 on second down.  Run for a loss of 1 on first down, fumble on a sack at the bear 22.

At halftime, the score was 3-3, and it’s obvious that had the Jaguars thrown on first downs, they would have scored a lot more.

Down 6-3, this is the Jaguars’ next possession, which was their first possession of the second half:

Run on first down for 1, but hold, so now first and 20.  Next play was an interception returned for a touchdown, effectively ending the game.

First-down runs led to the two turnovers on the last two possessions, one costing the Jaguars a score, and one giving the bears a touchdown.  Will coaches ever learn?