Managers And Coaches

This is a response to a friend who said I don’t know more than managers and coaches:

Many times I do know more than the managers and coaches. It’s not that I’m so smart or can see into the future–it’s common sense, watching what does and doesn’t work, and having a feel for the game. For example, did anyone think either of those lefties were going to get the key run in against Thornton (a lefty) in the 8th tonight? I knew they wouldn’t and wanted a squeeze, but the manager who knows more than me sent them both up and both failed. Now, to the Valverde situation. You completely misunderstood what I said because you read into it more than I said. This comes from you watching managers do stupid things for so long that you actually think they are smart things and when a manager doesn’t do it, that’s when you think it’s stupid. My comment about Benoit pitching the 9th had nothing to do with Valverde struggling. I don’t follow the a.l. (except when I watch the Sox), so I didn’t know he was struggling. I had a feel for the game and felt he was going to blow the lead in the 9th, which he did, but that’s not even my point. My point was this. Managers have a big flaw that costs them many games, and this is what you missed about what I said. The flaw is that managers think that every pitcher is on that day, so they can keep bringing in pitchers, and they will all do well. This is ridiculous. The fact is that Benoit had an easy 1-2-3 8th, so it was obvious he was on. You don’t know if Valverde will be on. So, keep the pitcher in that’s pitching well, and keep Valverde ready in case he falters. This would have nothing to do with Valverde’s confidence if the manager would always do this, as it would be expected. The reason the manager doesn’t do this is because he feels if he pitches the 8th-inning pitcher 2 innings, he won’t be available the next day. Who knows if you’ll even need him the next day, and if you did, you could pitch Valverde 2 innings or 1 inning and someone else 1 inning. Why risk giving up a game that you have control of to try to win tomorrow, when in reality, you are risking losing both games? That’s the point. This was an important game to win, and you had it. Instead of winning it, you put the game at risk by putting in a guy that you don’t know will be on that day. You do know the current pitcher is on. You risk losing both games, instead of taking an almost-sure win and the momentum going into the next game. Managers don’t get this, but they know more than I do.

This is the response I sent to a friend who, in good humor, asked me if I was ever wrong after I sent the previous e-mail:

That is a good question! I can tell you that it is rare. It’s not that I’m smart or can see the future–it is common sense. It’s the result of seeing things that work and don’t work over and over, and having a feel for the game. People who watch games with me can confirm this. Here are two examples:

1. Packer-Bronco Super Bowl. Around the end of the third quarter, the people in the row in front of me turned around and asked me how I was able to say the entire game what would happen and be right. This was just after the Broncos kicked a FG to go up 7, and I then said, because they were now down a TD, Holmgren would throw on the first downs and they would get a TD in about 2 minutes. This is exactly what happened.

2. I went to a Cubs-Reds game with my brothers a few years ago when the Cubs were good and in contention. This was around the last week of the season, and the Cubs were losing games and this was a must-win game. The Cubs led by a run going into the ninth. While the Cubs were batting in the bottom of the 8th, I told everyone around me that Baker should bring in Kyle Farnsworth for the 9th since he was unhittable recently, but he would bring in LaTroy Hawkins, who would blow the game. He did bring in Hawkins. I then told everyone before the inning started that Hawkins would not only blow the game, but he gives up a double every outing, so we had to hope it was with 2 outs since he would definitely give up a double. Hawkins got the first two guys, and people were looking at me. I said that he still hadn’t given up the double. They then announced the next batter was D’Angelo Jiminez. This guy killed the Cubs, so I said they should walk him or throw pitches off the plate to try to get him to swing at a non-strike, but do not pitch to this guy. That would sound risky as he’d be the tying run, but I knew it was the right thing to do. Of course they pitched to him, and he tripled. I then reminded everyone that Hawkins still hadn’t given up the double so we were in big trouble, and of course the next batter doubled in the tying run. Farnsworth came in for the 10th and I think he struck out the side. The Cubs lost.

I could give you more examples!!