Mike McCarthy’s philosophy of not trying to score early and often to get a big lead, reduce the pressure on your team, put pressure on the other team, and avoid the scenario where in a close game, a turnover, a fluke play, or an injury can decide the outcome, continues to result in close games that can go either way. The Packer-Lion game was a perfect example of this, and it nearly cost the Packers the game. It is amazing that even though this happens game after game, he can’t see this. He also made other questionable decisions, all of which will be described below.
Before I get to the specifics, I will say that the Lions could have won this game by lining up or jumping offsides when on defense on every first down. Being offsides results in a first-and-five, and that is almost a guarantee that McCarthy will run, which dramatically increases the probability the Packers will punt. This happened twice in the game, and both times the Packers ran on first and second down and stalled drives.
These are the Packer possessions:
First half:
Throw on first down and get a first down. Run on first down and punt.
Run on first down and get a first down. Throw on first down, have two holding penalties, and throw a low-percentage pass on 4th-and-4 which is incomplete.
Throw on first down and get a first down. Run on first and second down for 3rd-and-9 and get first down via a pass. Run on first and second down and get first down via a pass. Throw on first down for touchdown.
Throw on first down and get a first down. Run on first down but Lions offside so 1st-and-5. Run on first and second down and punt.
Run on first down, throw interception on second down. The interception followed a first-down run.
With 0:59 left in the half and the Lions knowing the Packers had to pass, they passed for 7, passed for 11, and were sacked for a loss of 8. There were 30 seconds left in the half and the Packers were facing a 50-yard field-goal attempt. Mason Crosby has been struggling, having missed 5 of his last 10, and McCarthy earlier passed up a 49-yard attempt. Does McCarthy use the 30 seconds to try to get closer? No, he lets the clock wind down and Crosby misses a 50-yard attempt. They could have run a number of plays to get closer and out of bounds or a touchdown.
The first half ended with the Lions up 10-7. The Packers wasted a great opportunity to take a big lead and get control of the game, and were not only not leading, but losing. The Lions have a great defensive line and a bad secondary. The Packers have a great passing game and a terrible running game. What does McCarthy do? He runs a lot in the first half. In addition, Troy Aikman and Joe Buck said a number of times the Packers have to pass to the middle of the field, because the Lions were taking away the deep ball and sidelines. They couldn’t understand why they were not doing this, and said this again later in the game. The Packers finally did throw a pass in this area for a nice gain later in the game, and the announcers commented on that, too.
Second half:
The Packers needed to come out aggressively to take the lead and get momentum. Here is the first drive. Run on first down for 3, pass for first down. Run on first down for 2, get sacked for a loss of 5, get sacked and fumble at own 11 but recover. Punt. Not only did the Packers not come out aggressively to try to take the lead, but the first-down runs almost resulted in a turnover deep in Packer territory, which would have allowed the Lions to extend their lead.
McCarthy allowed a defensive formation that had Williams covering Calvin Johnson one-on-one in press coverage (no safety help), which is an almost guaranteed touchdown, but Stafford overthrew the pass to an open Johnson. When will McCarthy learn that press coverage in single coverage is a terrible strategy, giving the defender almost no chance as he has to play with his back to the QB? In addition, in press coverage, the defender has a much harder time reacting to a receiver’s moves.
Run on first down and get a first down. Throw on first down over the middle for 20 yards, prompting Aikman to again talk about the middle being open all game and wondering why the Packers weren’t attacking that. Run on first down for a loss of 1 and punt. This was a key drive, and again was stopped by a first-down run.
Throw on first down for first down. Run on first down for no gain. The announcers said at that point that McCarthy has called a very balanced game, and a conservative game. They again said he has to go after the middle of the field. This balanced and conservative game resulted in 7 offensive points until there was 4:55 left in the game when McCarthy finally passed, of course resulting in a touchdown with just under 2:00 left. To continue the drive: Pass incomplete, but defensive holding so first down. Deep pass incomplete to a wide-open Cobb, but Detroit lined up offsides, making it 1st-and-5 at the Lion 23. The Packers needed a touchdown here, as Crosby continued to struggle and had missed 6 of his last 11 field-goal attempts. Although it only counts as one miss, he missed both attempts at the field goal at the end of the half. What does McCarthy do? He runs on first down for 1, runs on second down for 2, basically giving them one shot at a first down and not trying to get a TD since runs stall drives. Crosby missed a 38-yard FG-attempt.
The Packers, down 20-14, get the ball at their own 18, with 4:19 left. Run for 11. Pass incomplete. Pass for 40. Pass for 6, run for 3, pass for 22-yard TD and a 21-20 lead. Since the Packers were aggressive on this possession, they scored a touchdown.
As I said, once again, McCarthy’s conservative gameplan kept a game close against a team that the Packers are better than, and almost cost them the game. This strategy has cost them many games in the past.
Regarding the 49er-bear game, one of the reasons the 49ers came out and dominated was because they came out passing and were aggressive on offense. However, despite that, their 3 drives that ended in field goals were all stopped by running plays. These drives could have resulted in touchdowns with aggressive playcalling.
I missed most of the first half last night, watching a very interesting episode of “Dancing With The Stars”, but I did catch parts of it during the commercials. I thought the bears must have spotted the 49ers 10 points, because when I did turn the game on, it was 10-0 San Francisco. When I did turn it on, it was obvious very early on who would win, and the only real question was whether Jim Harbaugh would limit the point differential to more or less than 40. Since the bears’ two most potent offensive weapons/strategies weren’t working last night (the punt return and the defensive strip forced fumble), it was only a matter of time before they resorted to the Ditka-esque draw play up the middle to Matt Forte. I do have to give the 49ers credit for not working their starters too hard running routes and pass blocking and stuff. Just go 10-15 yards and stop, and Kaepernick would find them, all alone. Lovie Smith should send a thank you note to the league for the gift touchdown his offense would get following the bizarre call of blocking in the back when Gabe Carimi batted a loose ball out of bounds. I guess officials have a heart too.