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McCarthy and Mangini Still Don’t Get It

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Mike McCarthy and Eric Mangini showed today that even though we are in Week 12 of the NFL season, they still haven’t learned anything about strategy. Let’s start with McCarthy.

The Packers ran on most first downs in the first half, which as I have always pointed out, basically means you aren’t trying to score. They dominated time of possession in the first half, but were behind 21-10. Not trying to score in the first half and letting the other team hang around gives the other team confidence and doesn’t give you much margin for error. The tone of a game can be set in the first half, which is why it’s important to be aggressive and try to build a big lead. In the second half, the Packers were much more agressive, throwing on first downs, and scored on EVERY possession until they got the ball back with about 1:30 left, down 4, and were desperate. Since they scored on every possession of the second half by throwing, it makes sense that they would have scored on a number of possessions in the first half had they thrown.

Let’s look at some other ways McCarthy blew another game, which was a critical game for the Packers’ playoff hopes:

  1. The Packers had the ball at their own 3 in the first half, and ran on first down. This resulted in a punt, and the Panthers scored a TD due to the good field position. Every defense is looking for the run in this situation, but coaches are afraid of a turnover so they get conservative. Coaches fail to realize that if they are conservative, the other team will get the ball back in great field position and probably score anyway, so it makes more sense to pass on first down in these situations. In addition, the defense is expecting the run and is set up to stop that. In the second half when the Packers had a first down at their 5, they did throw on first down, and completed a 46-yard pass. (Tonight, the Vikings had a first down at their 1, threw on first down, and got a 99-yard TD.)
  2. Tied at 28 with 2:30 left, the Packers had a first down at the Panther 7. Instead of throwing for a TD, they ran three times and kicked a FG. Carolina hadn’t stopped the pass all game. Carolina then came down and scored the winning TD.
  3. After the Packers got the go-ahead FG with 1:58 left, they had to kick off. Carolina ran the previous two kicks back to midfield. Did McCarthy squib kick? Of course not, and they ran this kick back to midfield, which gave them great field position for the winning TD.

Now, let’s look at Mangini, keeping in mind my comment above that the tone of a game can be set in the first half:

  1. The first 8 times the Jets started a series, they ran on first down. They were continuously in second-and-long situations. Down 17-7 in the first quarter as a result of the first-down runs and the fact that the Broncos were aggressively passing, the annoucners said that the Jets needed to start throwing on first down. On the 9th first-down play, they finally threw, and completed the pass for 15 yards.
  2. After having run on 10 of 11 first downs, Favre threw an interception on a long pass on first down. As I’ve pointed out before, his interceptions come when he is frustrated with conservative gameplans that don’t work, and this was the situation here.
  3. The Jets ran on 11 of 13 first downs, and were down 27-14 at halftime. While the Jets were being conservative, Denver threw 28 times for 230 yards in the first half. Favre was 6 of 12, usually throwing in must-throw situations. It’s obvious the difference an aggressive gameplan can make.
  4. Since the Jets made no attempt to score in the first half by running and were down, they decided to throw a little in the second half to try to score and get back in the game. Let’s look at the first two possessions:

First possession

  • Pass for 9 on first down and get first down on a penalty on the play.
  • Long pass on first down incomplete but get a first down on the play due to pass interference.
  • Run for 1 yard on first down and turn the ball over on downs.

Second possession:

  • Pass on first down. Get a first down.
  • Pass on first down for a first down.
  • Pass on first down for a first down.
  • Pass on first down for a first-and-goal at the Denver 7.
  • Run on first down for nothing and kick a FG.

Notice any patterns?!

With 5:40 to play in the third quarter, during the Jets’ second possession, they ran a play in Denver territory for only the second time! This is the result of a conservative gameplan. During this second Jets possession, the announcers said the Jets didn’t throw on early downs in the first half, but are in the second half and it is working. They later said that the Jets got off to a slow start which gave Denver hope, which is exactly what I’ve always said about first-half conservative gameplans. This strategy cost the Jets the game and a 2-game lead in the division with 4 to play. With 9:00 left, the Jets threw only the second pass to Laveranues Coles, neither of which were complete. Not throwing to their best receiver was another indication of the conservative gameplan.

McCarthy and Mangini cost their teams critical games today, and made the same mistakes they have been making all year.