I’ll start by saying that every sports announcer I’ve heard and article I’ve read talked about how the Packer offense hasn’t been dominating this year, and how the 49er and bear defenses held them somewhat in check. This shows the complete lack of understanding of what really happened. The previous post showed the details in the 49er game and this post will discuss the bear game. I told many people before the bear game, as I always do, that if the Packers throw on first downs and throw on most plays, they will have a high-powered offense and win easily, but if they run on first downs and run a lot, they will struggle and the game will be close. This has held true from the beginning of the Favre era, but Packer coaches never get this. Previous posts show this is the case every week. I also said that McCarthy gets conservative against good defenses like the 49ers, Giants, and bears, which is the worst thing you can do.
Just as an aside, the Falcons have had a good team the last few years but never did anything in the playoffs. This year, people are talking about them as a Super Bowl contender. Here is what Sports Illustrated had to say this week: “After four years of a ground-based attack that was methodical at best and plodding at worst, Atlanta unveiled an up-tempo, quick-passing game under new coordinator Dirk Koetter that produced points on each of the first eight possessions. Fifth-year quarterback Matt Ryan, playing with an enthusiasm and a focus previously unseen, completed 23 of 31 passes for 299 yards, three touchdowns and no picks for a 136.4 rating.” This is exactly what I have been saying. If you let quarterbacks throw on early downs, they will feel comfortable and enthusiastic, it keeps the passing rhythm going, and it results in leads where QBs don’t have to feel they have to force things and make things happen.
Now, to the Packer-bear game. The bears have a good offense and had come off a great offensive performance against the Colts, so it would be important for the Packers to come out aggressively on offense and score points. What does McCarthy do? He runs on first and second down on the first drive, and punts. First-down runs also stopped the second drive, including a run on first-and-twenty. As I continually say, this lets the other team stay in the game, gives them confidence, and puts you in a situation where anything can happen. The Packers made no attempt to score offensively in the first half, letting the bears hang around. McCarthy also played for a field goal at the end of the half, instead of taking a shot at a touchdown before kicking the field goal. In the second half, after the bears cut the lead to 13-3, the Packers needed to regain momentum. McCarthy ran on second and third downs, resulting in a punt. The Packers ran on another third-and-one later, and thus had to kick a field goal. The Packer passing game was out of synch because of the run emphasis. Greg Jennings missed the game, which was another reason to pass and get the passing game in synch since it would be harder to pass without your best receiver if you were out of synch and had to pass.
In addition, on a key play that could have put the game away for the Packers, Tillman stripped the ball from a Packer receiver and the bears recovered. I say before every Packer-bear game that Tillman does this and the Packers have to protect the ball. Tillman has done this to the Packers many times, costing them at least two games, but the coaching staff either isn’t emphasizing this or the players just don’t get it.
One more point about the Colt-bear game last week. I pointed out that the bears were lucky to face Luck in his first game before he got experience. Additional luck: The Colts had a lot of pressure on Cutler early and the bear offense was going nowhere. This is what the Packers did to the bears all game. However, after the early drives, there wasn’t much pressure and the bear offense was able to move the ball well. I subsequently found out that Dwight Freeney went out in the first quarter, and that, of course, significantly removed the pressure put on by him and Robert Mathis that was stopping the bears.