The Packers played a Ram team that they are much better than, but the score was only 10-6 Packers at halftime, as Mike McCarthy’s strategy allowed the Rams to hang around. This is a dangerous strategy, as an injury, turnover, etc. can turn around a close game. The Packers went into this game with key starters injured. First-down passes are the key to building a big lead early when the tone of a game can be set.
On the Packers’ first drive, they ran on first down for a loss of 1, were sacked on second down for a loss of 4, passed for 8 yards, and punted. The drive was stalled by a first-down run.
Down 3-0, they passed on first down for 15 yards and a first down/passed on first down for 9, ran for a loss of 2, passed for 52 yards and a first down/were going to pass on first down but there was a defensive penalty which gave them a first down at the three, passed on first down for a TD.
Up 10-3, they ran on first down for 2, passed for 10 and a first down/ran for 3, passed for 4, passed for 8 and a first down/ran for 3, passed for 6, passed incomplete, punted. Another drive stalled by a first-down run.
Up 10-6 with 40 seconds left in the half, from the Packer 15: Pass for 13/false start, pass for 14, pass for 18/pass for 5, spike to stop clock, miss a 58-yard field goal. They moved the ball by passing even though the Rams knew they had to pass.
First drive of second half: Run for 1, running play but Rodgers kept the ball and ran for 1, pass for 18/pass for 13/run for 9, run for 0, pass for 17/run for 2, pass for 2, pass for 9/pass for 3, pass for 5 and a TD.
Rodgers was 20 of 22 at this point, and the lead would have been much greater had he been passing more on first down. They were fortunate to convert the third downs they did.
Next drive: Pass sideways for 0, run for 15/run for 4, run for 3, pass for 2, punt. First-down run stalled drive.
Next drive: Dropped first-down pass, passed for first down but holding so 2nd-and-20, passed for 13, Rams offsides, pass for 6/pass for 6, pass incomplete, pass for 9 and first down at the 6/run for 1, run for 0, pass incomplete, kick field goal.
Had the Packers scored a touchdown on the previous drive, they would have gone up 24-6, making it a three-score game in the fourth quarter, and basically ending the game. McCarthy’s decision to run on first and second down when they got to the 6 stalled the drive, and as a result, they only kicked a field goal to go up 20-6. The Rams, with the momentum of stopping the Packers on first and goal, scored a touchdown to make it a one-score game at 20-13. This is the danger of letting a team hang around by being conservative. Having said all this, on the third-down pass prior to the field goal, James Jones was blatantly held in the endzone for a long period of time, which the announcers pointed out, and which prevented him from catching the touchdown pass. Had this been properly called as it was blatant, the Packers have a first-and-goal from the 1, and go up three scores to end the game.
After the Rams scored a touchdown to pull within 7, it was very important for the Packers to regain momentum by throwing on first downs. What does McCarthy do? Run on first down for 0, pass for 11/run for 3, pass incomplete, pass for 8/run for 2, pass for 16/run for 5, run for a loss of 4, pass for 39 and a TD. They were able to convert after first-down runs that didn’t do well through the passing game that the Rams couldn’t stop, so they did score, but most times drives are stalled by doing this.
One additional point. I’m very happy to see that a very well-respected national publication like the Wall Street Journal agrees with me that outcomes should be reversed when the officials steal games. In the October 22, 2012 WSJ, this is what it said: “The Packers have lifted themselves out of bed and now sit at 4-3–or 5-2, if you don’t count, you know, that stuff that happened in Seattle.” Of course, had the WSJ realized the refs also stole the other two losses, they would have said the Packers are 7-0.