Mike McCarthy had a very good gameplan against the Philadelphia Eagles (throwing a lot and throwing on first downs), and the Packers won 53-20. He then ran on first downs against the Patriots, costing the Packers a number of touchdowns, and the Packers had to hold on for a close win that could have gone the other way.
Let’s look at the Eagle game. The Packers called 28 passes and 7 runs in the first half, and as a result, led a very good Eagle team 30-6 at halftime. As I’ve always said, if the Packers are aggressive, they will build a big lead and won’t let the other team hang around and make them susceptible to losing due to an injury, a turnover, or a fluke play. When they come out running on first downs, the games are close and could go either way. The Packers put this game away early due to the smart gameplan. The other two games this year when they did the same thing (the two bear games), their offense scored at will. Passing early and often also allows Rodgers (and Favre before him) to get into a rhythm and play very well. I read a pregame report that said the Packers had to run Lacy a lot to keep the Eagles’ offense off the field. I knew that was laughable. I don’t understand why people associate the run for the Packers with ball possession. The Packers’ drives will be longer if they pass than if they run, because when they run, drives stall.
Prior to the Patriot game, I said the Packers had to throw on first downs, or the game could go either way. Let’s look at how McCarthy turned touchdowns into field goals, nearly costing the Packers the game. The Packers converted a third-down pass at the two-minute warning in the second half, and had they not, the Patriots and Brady would have gotten the ball, down 5, with 2 minutes to play, putting the win in jeopardy.
On the Packers’ first drive, they had the ball at the New England 23. McCarthy ran on first down for 2 yards and the Packers did not get the first down on third down, but a defensive penalty gave them a first down. They then had a first down at the 16, ran for 2 on first down, ran for no gain on second down, and kicked a field goal.
On the Packers’ second drive, the Packers had a first down at the Patriot 18. They ran Lacy on first down for 1 yard, then kicked a field goal. With a chance to go up 14-0 early and have momentum and the Patriots in trouble, McCarthy elected to keep the Patriots in the game. Even if he hadn’t noticed this pattern that has held since 1992 (!), he should have realized what was happening in this game. Let’s see what he then did.
On their third possession, the Packers scored a TD on a first-down 32-yard pass.
The Patriots scored a touchdown, so the Packers needed to score a TD to regain momentum. The Packers had a first down at the New England 8. Did McCarthy learn from the previous first-down-run stalled drives? Of course not. They ran on first down for 2 yards, then kicked a field goal. Prior to that, they had a first down at the N.E. 18, and McCarthy ran on first down for a loss of 2. They just made the first down on a third-down pass, then stalled the drive by running on first down at the 8.
The Packers got the ball with 1:05 left in the half. The Patriots knew they had to throw on every play, and even though they knew that, the Packers did throw on every play and scored a touchdown.
In the third quarter, the Packers had a chance to go up 30-14 and make it difficult for N.E. They held the Patriots on their first possession, and had a first down at the N.E. 26. They ran on first down for a loss of 2, and missed a field-goal attempt.
Time after time the first-down-run strategy failed deep in N.E. territory, but McCarthy kept doing it. Has he watched a game film since 1992?
As mentioned, I said before the game that the Packers needed to throw on first downs. This is how they’ve been successful throughout the Favre and Rodgers years. I was gratified to see a fan, 10 seats from me at the Patriot game, stand up and yell, “Stop running on first downs!” after another first-down run that was soon to stall a drive deep in N.E. territory.