In typical Mike McCarthy fashion, the Packers took a game that could have been over early and allowed the bears to hang around and have a chance to win. McCarthy escaped in weeks 1 and 2 when he got conservative offensively and let the other teams come back and almost win, and he did it again this week. I stated before the game that if the Packers threw on first downs, they would win in a rout, and if they ran on first downs, the bears had a chance to win. I also said the Packers needed to throw downfield and attack and stretch the bear defense. The bears are in a run defense on first down, with their front 7 playing the run. They play the run very well, but can’t play pass defense. In this game, the bears were playing with 2 backup safeties, which is even more reason to pass. McCarthy did this in all three bear games last year, costing them the first game and keeping the other games close when they could have been routs. So, let’s see what happened in this game.
First drive: The Packers threw on first downs and on 7 of 8 plays, and easily scored a touchdown. They only had second down twice.
Second drive: The Packers threw 2 passes and got a first down. They then ran on first-and-fifteen and on second-and-twelve, resulting in a punt.
Third drive: The Packers ran on first and second down, and also on third-and-seven, resulting in a punt.
Fourth drive: The Packers scored a touchdown on the drive, giving them a 14-0 lead.
Since the game could have been 28-0 at this point (the Packers scored at will against the Saints when they kept throwing early) since the bears can’t stop the pass, but was only 14-0 since McCarthy was allowing them to hang around, the bears felt they were in the game and scored a TD, making it 14-7.
The bears kicked a field goal in the last minute of the half to make it 17-10, putting them within a touchdown. This made it important for the Packers to come out in the second half and build momentum. What does McCarthy do? He runs on first down on their first drive, for a loss, which results in a punt.
The Packers continued to run and throw short, and not attack downfield to stretch the defense and take advantage of their strengths.
The Packers got to the bear 12. They ran on first down for no gain, ran on second down for 1 yard, and ended up kicking a field goal. Time after time, McCarthy gives up opportunities for touchdowns by running when he gets deep in the opponent’s territory.
Up 20-10, the Packers had a first down at the bear 11 after passing on the first 3 plays and completing them all. On first down, they ran for no gain. On second down, they ran for 1 yard. They did throw for a TD on third-and-nine.
The Packers intercepted at their 30, up 17 in the 4th quarter. Had they been aggressive offensively, they could have ended the game. What does McCarthy do? He runs on first down, they fumble, the bears recover, and the bear offense, which had been going nowhere, scored a TD on the first play due to the momentum change from the first-down-run fumble.
The Packers later threw on first down and got a first down. They then ran on first down (first-and-fifteen) for no gain and punted, again not trying to score and put the game away.
With 2:15 left, the Packers ran on first down for no gain, ran on third-and-seven, and punted.
With 1:09 to play, the Packers had to punt, up 27-17. Before the play, I made the statement to people in the stands that the only thing that could hurt the Packers would be a big-play punt return, because that would put the bears within 3, and if they got the onside kick, they would have about a minute to try to tie or win. Therefore, I said the punter had to punt out of bounds and not allow a return. I am not sure whether McCarthy told the punter to do this and the punter made a mistake or whether he didn’t tell him to do this, but the punter punted inbounds, and the bears returned it for a touchdown. The Packers were very fortunate that holding was called, nullifying the touchdown. How ridiculous is it to punt inbounds in that situation? It’s the only thing that can hurt you, aside from not having 4-5 deep safeties when the bears got the ball after the punt and allowing a big play that way.