Yesterday’s Packer-bear game confirmed what I’ve said the last few years regarding Packer-bear games. Fans of the bears said the bears play Rodgers well, which is why the Packers don’t score a lot and the games are close. I pointed out that in some games, the Packers came out passing, scored on the first two drives, then got conservative and ran which meant they wouldn’t score, the bears would be allowed to hang around and gain confidence instead of being down by a lot, and the games would come down to the end. In Week 17 last year, the Packers were conservative all game, which again, kept the game close. Let’s look at yesterday’s game:
The Packers threw on 8 of 9 plays on the opening drive, and of course drove to an easy TD.
Second drive: The Packers threw on first down (the first play), and Finley was wide open, of course, and dropped an easy pass for a nice gain and first down.
From that point on, the Packers did not throw downfield on first or second down until there was 1:50 left in the half. The Packers didn’t score again to that point as a result, and were fortunate to be leading 7-3.
I was at the game, and with 1:50 left in the half, I told those around me that now McCarthy would have to pass since there wasn’t much time left, and the Packers would score a TD as a result. What happened? The Packers threw on 6 of 7 plays (the other play was a scramble, so this might have been a pass play) and scored an easy TD. This again shows how predictable this is. Whenever the Packers throw on first down and throw downfield, they easily score against the bears.
In the second half, they let Rodgers throw on first down and throw downfield, and the Packers marched. He ended up with 5 TD passes, and this was after wasting most of the first half not trying to score and being pulled midway through the fourth quarter. If you take away the 17 minutes in the first half they did not try to score (between Finley’s drop and with 1:50 to go in the half) and the 8 minutes he didn’t play at the end, that means Rodgers threw 5 TD passes in 35 minutes, which is just more than half the game! Looks to me like he would have thrown 8 or 9 TD passes had they been aggressive all game.
This further confirms my statements that the Packers stop themselves when playing the bears by being conservative, as no matter what point of the game, when the Packers throw on first down and throw downfield, they score easily.