The Packers lost to the Giants and deserved to lose to the Giants, and since it was a 7-point game in the fourth quarter, had the Packers won, it would have been a travesty since they got a touchdown on a bad call (Greg Jennings’ fumble). So, I am not saying the Packers won by any means. However, I will show that there were two reasons for the Packers’ loss, and neither of them had anything to do with anything the Giants did. I was at the game.
The first reason was the dropped passes. Had the Packers not dropped those passes, they probably score two touchdowns on the first 3 drives (the exception being the one they did score on, but shouldn’t have due to the bad call), and the game takes on a very different tone. Their offense would have been on a roll, and there would have been a lot of pressure on the Giants. They also dropped passes later that prevented them from scoring. These drops had nothing to do with the Giants, but were a lack of concentration on the Packer players’ part.
Of course, the main reason the Packers lost, as is the main reason whenever they lose, is Mike McCarthy. McCarthy proved once again that he doesn’t have a feel for the game, doesn’t understand when key plays will take place, and does not learn from past mistakes in both previous and current games. I will provide the details.
1. Three-Man Rush
a) The Packers have been burned over and over the last few years when they rush 3 guys. The opposing quarterback has all day to throw, and completes passes for first downs. For the last few years, I’ve been vocal about this, as it is a terrible strategy. The Packers got burned on this numerous times in the Giant game. In a 3-3 game, the Giants had third-and-eleven from their own 19, and McCarthy rushed three. Manning “has all day” (as the announcer said) to wait until a receiver got open, and hit him for a 15-yard pass for a first down. The next play was a 66-yard TD pass, putting the Giants up 10-3, so this strategy cost them badly.
b) The Packers were burned on other 3-man rushes, so when the Giants had the ball with 6 seconds left in the half, out of timeouts, at the Packer 37, before the Giants lined up for the play, I made the statement to those around me that if McCarthy rushes three men, he has no clue. Of course he did rush three men, Manning had time to wait for receivers to set up, and they completed a Hail Mary for a touchdown, putting them up 20-10 at the half.
c) Basically, the 20 points the Giants had through three quarters were due to three-man rushes that gave receivers all day to get open and Manning all day to find them. All McCarthy had to do was look at previous Packer gamefilms, and see they have been burned by this time and again. If you’re going to rush three men, why not rush one and drop 10 into coverage, since you’re not going to get near the quarterback.
2. Understanding Critical Points Of The Game
a) A good football coach will realize that certain points of the game are critical, and require the appropriate strategy to ensure success. McCarthy does not have this ability. I have pointed out times in previous games where there were plays or series I considered critical to the outcome prior to the play or series, stated what McCarthy needed to do, and stated what he would do, saying it would backfire and cost them. I’ve been right each time I’ve said this. There are two perfect examples in this game, both of which played key roles in costing the Packers the game.
b) With 5:27 left in the half, tied at 10, the Packers intercepted and had the ball at their own 25. They had the momentum from the interception. I told the people around me that this was a critical point in the game. The Packers needed to throw on first downs so they would score a touchdown and go into halftime up 17-10. I said that after their terrible play, to go into halftime with a late score, the lead, momentum, and a chance to regroup after playing so poorly, as well as the demoralizing effect it would have on the Giants, was key. So, I stressed they needed to throw on first downs, since they almost always score when doing so. However, I also stated McCarthy would probably run on these first downs, as he gets conservative in those situations, and it has cost him games. Running on first down in these situations is a disaster for the Packers, and that is what I said before the possession. What does McCarthy do? He runs on first down for one yard. The Packers did get the first down on a pass, so he runs on first down again. The running back gains 2 yards and fumbles, and the Giants get a field goal and momentum as a result. The Giants then completed the Hail Mary and were up 10 at the half, rather than being down 7, a 17-point turnaround! I have seen this happen before when he gets conservative in these situations, but he doesn’t have a clue. I recognized the fact that this was a turning point before any of this happened, and not only said what he should do, but said what he would do and how it would backfire, as it did.
c) With 5:26 left in the third quarter, down 20-10, the Packers had the ball first down at the Giant 22. I told those around me that this was another critical point in the game, since if the Packers could score a touchdown, they would pull within 3 with over a quarter to play, gain momentum, and this would probably turn the game around. I said that McCarthy needed to throw on first down so they could score a touchdown, but he would probably run on first down and thus settle for a field goal, which would not only not give them momentum, but give the Giants momentum from stopping them. What does McCarthy do? He runs on first down for 5 yards, and runs on second down for 0 yards! Of course, they had to kick the field goal, so once again, I (not McCarthy) recognized this was a critical point in the game, I knew what the Packers needed to do to score a critical touchdown, and I predicted what McCarthy would do and that they would have to settle for a field goal and the Giants keeping momentum. Once again, I said all these things BEFORE the plays, and once again I was correct regarding what happened.
As usual, when the Packers lose, it is due to terrible coaching, and once again McCarthy loses to a team with lesser talent.
One additional point. A number of you told me that the Packers’ second touchdown should not have counted, as the Packer drive continued due to a roughing-the-passer penalty that was a bad call. I’m not certain of the rule, but if the rule states any contact to the quarterback’s head is a penalty, then the call was correct. After Umenyiora had his arm around Rodgers, he hit his helmet on Rodgers’ helmet. It was not a vicious hit or intent to hurt, but he didn’t have to do this yet did go helmet-to-helmet. If the rule is “any contact,” then it was a good call. If that’s not the rule, then it was not a good call.
In summary, let’s not just look at the final score, but how it was arrived at. As McCarthy said, the wounds were self-inflicted. What did the Giants offense do? They had 20 points after three quarters. 7 were on a gift Hail Mary and 7 on missed tackles on the long TD pass. I think they had a 4-yard TD drive in the fourth quarter. The only time they moved the ball was when the Packers rushed three. What did the Giants defense do? The Packers dropped pass after pass, costing them at least three TDs. They also fumbled a lot, and not on hard hits (the Osi strip of Rodgers was a good play). My point is that while the Packers deserved to lose, it was because they beat themselves.