This is a response to a friend:
I want to preface this by stating the obvious. It would be great if the games could be played both ways–one with my strategy and one with the strategy the coaches go with. That would provide a clear answer as to what would happen in both scenarios. Unfortunately, that can’t happen, so we can only comment on what the coaches actually did do. It’s easy for me to say the Packers/Favre/bear opponents would score a lot and win easily if they threw on the vast majority of plays, and it’s easy for you to say that the current strategies are okay and the defense would stop them. Since we can only comment on what the coaches did do, I will now show that what the coaches actually did do in the bear and Falcon games falls completely into line with what I’ve been saying consistently for over 25 years regarding the bears, and for 20 years regarding the Packers/Favre.
Let’s start with the bear game. You say the Packers ran on 7 second-half first downs, and passed on 6. I actually think it’s really 7 and 5, since they ran on a first down, got a holding penalty, and then on first-and-20, they passed. The intent was to run on first down on this series. Your point is that since it’s close, they weren’t running on first down all the time. My point is that unless you pass around 75% or more of the time against the bears and pass on first down 85-90% of the time at minimum, you won’t score. Runs stall drives, even if you get a or some first downs. This is very consistent with what I said. My point has always been that if you don’t pass on the vast majority of the plays against the bears, you won’t score much. The Packers had no offensive points from early- to mid-second quarter on. This is what I predicted would happen unless they kept passing. Again, it’s easy for me to say that they would score a lot if they had passed on the vast majority of plays and it’s easy for you to say they wouldn’t have, but we’ll never know for sure. What we do know is they did not pass on most plays, and therefore did not score, which is in line with what I said. On the opening drive, they did pass on the vast majority of plays, and scored a relatively easy touchdown, again, completely in line with what I said. There were no previous runs to make play-action effective. They just passed the ball and moved downfield. Based on what did happen throughout the game, I was right in what I said would happen as a result.
Now, to the Atlanta game. I’ll go through this drive by drive. However, to first summarize, this game McCarthy did do what I’ve been saying he should do. He threw on almost 75% of the plays the first 2-1/2 quarters, and scored basically every time as a result. This was against the number-one seed on the road, against a team that almost never loses at home. They won easily as a result, and again, is what I predicted would happen if McCarthy would throw on the vast majority of plays.
Drive 1:
Run on first down for a loss of 3. Jennings fumbled after a third-down catch.
Drive 2:
Pass. Penalty–no play.
Run on first-and-five for 4 yards. Run for 4 and a first down. You could say that the first down was really a result of the called pass that got them a first-and-five.
Run for 13 yards and a first down.
Run for 4, pass for 7.
Run for 1, pass for 2, pass for 18 and a first down.
Pass for 5, pass for 2, pass for 8 and a first down.
Run for 2, pass for 6 and a TD.
This drive had only one run for more than 4 yards, but they did run on most of the first downs. Keep in mind that I didn’t say the Packers will never score when running on first down. I said they will rarely score, which is proven true game after game. So, yes, they did score on this drive, but had they continued to do this, would not have scored much more.
Drive 3:
Pass. Get first down.
Pass. Get first down.
Pass. Get first down.
Run. Get first down. (Ran on first down for 1 yard, passing on next 2 plays got first down.)
Run. Get first down. (Ran on first down for 1 yard, passing on second down got them the first down.)
Run. Get touchdown. (Ran on first down for no gain. Ran on second down for 1 yard and a TD.)
They threw on the first 3 first downs, and didn’t run on first down until they got to the Falcon 16-yardline. Passing got them downfield, and passing overcame the wasted first down runs for 1, 1, and 0 on the next 3 series.
Drive 4:
Pass
Pass (Scramble, but I assume a pass was called.)
Pass
Pass for TD.
Drive 5:
Pass
Pass
Run
Pass
Pass
Pass called–scramble for TD.
Pass.
Run for 6, Run for minus 1, Pass for 22.
Run for 4, Pass for 7 and a TD.
This TD drive was mostly due to passing, and with a big lead, the Packers were playing with confidence and the Falcons were desperate.
Rodgers was 31 of 36 for 366, 3 TDs, no interceptions. As with Favre, since they were passing early and often, he wasn’t in a position where he felt he had to make plays since the passing gave them a big lead. Favre also rarely threw interceptions when gameplans were pass-first, since you know you’re moving the ball, scoring a lot, and the pressure is on the opponent, not you.
In summary, both of these games, the way they were played, were completely in line with what I said would happen had the strategies been what they were.