A large number of the previous posts state that the Packers need to come out throwing on first downs and most plays to build a big lead, and not let the opponent hang around where injuries, turnovers, fluke plays, etc. can determine the outcome of the game. When the Packers are aggressive, they win in a rout, and when they are conservative, the games are close, and they lose many of them. In addition, being conservative doesn’t allow the quarterback to get into a rhythm, making him frustrated and resulting in poorer play and interceptions. The stat and article below show this very well.
When Packers games are decided by four points or less during the Aaron Rodgers era, he’s 5-17 as a starter. If the game is decided by more than four points, he’s 48-10. — via ESPN Stats Info
The following article is by Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Online (JSOnline):
Three hours of topsy-turvy wackiness boiled down to 15 minutes of fundamental clutch football Sunday at Paul Brown Stadium.
Once again, Mike McCarthy, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers came up short.
Depleted by injury or not, these Packers should be able to win any game, anywhere, any time.
They’ve been under the command of McCarthy now for 125 games, including 89 with a franchise quarterback in Rodgers under center.
History tells us, however, that if the Packers don’t win convincingly, they usually don’t win at all. In games when fans scream to the bitter end, victory almost mysteriously eludes this group of players.
There they were again, starting from their own 20 with 3 minutes, 47 seconds remaining and two timeouts needing a touchdown to win.
It’s a scenario Rodgers & Co. master at the end of almost every practice in August. As the crowds at Ray Nitschke Field erupt with cheers, those glorious sessions invariably conclude with a receiver cavorting in the end zone with what would have been the winning touchdown.
This one ended with a whimper, two final passes batted down at the line and the Cincinnati Bengals winning, 34-30.
“It was a game of momentum swings,” assessed McCarthy. “The fourth quarter swung Cincinnati’s way. You’ve got to give them credit. They played excellent defense down the stretch.”
McCarthy has won at a 65% clip in his career. However, in games decided by four points or fewer his teams are 9-20, counting playoffs. Of his two quarterbacks, Rodgers is 6-18 and Brett Favre was 3-2.
The Packers almost never have been blown out in the McCarthy era. They’ve been too good and too well-prepared for that.
But opponents now should know that if you stay close to the Packers, you can beat them because they have a track record of not being able to finish.
According to coldhardfootballfacts.com, Rodgers’ record fell to 3-19 in games when the Packers trailed by 1 to 8 points in the fourth quarter and had at least one possession.
Rodgers took defeat hard in a game that the Packers led, 30-14, late in the third quarter.
“Defense played excellent today,” said Rodgers. “They put us in great position to put the game away on multiple occasions. You have to win these types of games.”
Five of the NFC’s six playoff teams from 2012 — Atlanta, San Francisco, Green Bay, Washington and Minnesota — have losing records after three weeks.
The New York Giants, who won the Super Bowl twice in the previous six seasons, are 0-3. Only five of the 16 teams in the conference are above .500.
Green Bay’s two defeats, on the road at San Francisco and Cincinnati, figure to be two of its most difficult games, at least on paper. But the Packers can only dream of a third straight division championship and the Super Bowl unless they start winning tight games.
“Particularly on the road you have to make the plays when you have to have them,” defensive end B.J. Raji said. “We didn’t play well enough to win.
“I believe Winston Churchill said, ‘Sometimes the best isn’t good enough.’ You have to do what’s required.”
The Packers’ output on offense mirrored the unpredictability of the afternoon. After scoring a field goal and three punts on their first four possessions, they scored four times in a row on drives covering 262 yards.
At that point, the score was 30-14.
“We were at the point in this game where we could have made a statement as a defense and as a team,” cornerback Tramon Williams said. “Obviously, we let it slip. We gave up big plays.”
Aiming to put the game away, Rodgers marshaled an 11-play, 49-yard drive before Johnathan Franklin, subbing for injured Eddie Lacy and James Starks, fumbled on fourth and 1 and cornerback Terence Newman returned it 58 yards for the decisive score.
“It was definitely one of the most different games I’ve had in all my time,” the 49-year-old McCarthy said.
OK. Now go win the game.
Green Bay’s last four possessions ended in two interceptions, the fumble by Franklin and the feeble finale.
So the Bengals (2-1), who had averaged a modest 22.2 points in quarterback Andy Dalton’s first 36 starts, won a wild shootout from Rodgers. His passer rating was 105.5 compared to Rodgers’ 64.5, which was his lowest since the 2010 NFC Championship Game.
The Bengals’ defensive backs went after the Packers hoping their four formidable pass rushers would save them.
“Our game plan was to cover and let the defensive line make sacks,” safety George Iloka said, and besides four sacks the Bengals also had eight hits on Rodgers.
Still, Cincinnati’s scheme might not have worked if Jermichael Finley hadn’t gone out with a concussion on the Packers’ sixth play from scrimmage. McCarthy said he was an integral part of the plan, certainly due in part to the Bengals’ slow linebackers.
“It made it easier for us,” Hall said, referring to Finley’s departure. “They got him and the three receivers, it’s kind of pick and choose.”
A seven-year starter, Hall has tried to stop those potent Indianapolis offenses with Peyton Manning, New England’s with Tom Brady and New Orleans’ with Drew Brees.
“Honestly, I just don’t know how you can’t put Green Bay up there with the weapons they have,” said Hall. “The scheme and personnel they have is arguably one of the top three or four that I’ve faced.”
Just not at the end of close games. Many more times than not, the McCarthy Packers don’t get it done then.