Well, we are three games into the season for the Packers and two games in for the bears, and the refs have played a major role in both Packer “losses” and one of the two bear “wins.” What a surprise.
I will provide details on the refs’ contribution below, but will focus mostly on McCarthy. It is incredible that he can’t see why his strategies continue to fail, as these strategies have failed for the Packers for the last 20 years, and the recommended strategy has worked for the last 20 years. Last week McCarthy finally got aggressive with his playcalling (see post below), and the Packers blew out the opponent. Today, he went back to his normal strategy, and the result was predictable. I have said that the Packers have to come out aggressively and pass on first downs. I have also always said this will give them a big lead, and allow them to overcome:
1. Injuries–The Packers started the game with their secondary decimated, and during the game lost Finley (injured on first drive), Matthews (missed most of second half), and Starks (missed most of second half). They had already lost their top two running backs, their fullback, and their left tackle.
2. Turnovers–The Packers had two interceptions and a fumble today, all of which played a critical role in the outcome.
3. Fluke plays.
4. Bad calls–see below.
I’ve said that if the Packers throw on first downs, they’ll get first downs, but if they run on first downs, they might get a first down, but the drive will stall.
I have also always said Packer conservative gameplans allow the opponent to hang around, get confidence, get the advantage of the above four things, and potentially win the game. I’ve said when the Packers throw, they win easily, and when they run, they get in close games, some of which they win and some of which they lose. They are consistently one of the top teams in the league, so win many of these games, but these games don’t have to be close and they do lose some of these games.
I’ve also said that the Packers have to throw on first downs after the other team scores, to regain the momentum and stop the opponent’s momentum. I’ve also said that Favre’s and Rodgers’ interceptions come during games when they are frustrated with the conservative gameplan. When the Packers are aggressive, they don’t throw interceptions because they are in a rhythm, know they will get other chances to throw, don’t feel they have to make a play as a result, and will have a big lead so can play with less pressure.
This game was another weekly perfect example of what I’ve been saying for 20 years. Let’s look at what happened:
The Packers were down 14-0 before they got the ball, due to a Cincy TD and a fumble of the kick inside their 5. McCarthy should be aggressive and throw on first downs to score and change the momentum. What does he do? Run on first down for a first down. Throw on first down and get a first down. Run on first down and punt.
Finley, a key part of the offense, was hit in the head on the opening drive, and the concussion forced him to miss the rest of the game. The Packers were also the victim of helmet-to-helmet hits that were dangerous in their previous two games.
Second possession, down 14-0: Run on first down and punt.
McCarthy, down 14-0, made no attempt to score on these drives, and wasted the drives in a game that was decided by less than a TD. The conservative gameplan, as predicted, resulted in a close game that came down to the final plays, and this not only greatly frustrated Rodgers, but it cost them the game.
Down 14-3, the Packers recovered a fumble at the Cincy 37. They ran on first down and punted. Troy Aikman, TV announcer, said this was a frustrating start for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. I wonder why.
The Packers got the ball at the Cincy 21 on a turnover. They ran on first down and got a first down. With 8:35 left in the half, Rodgers was 2 of 8 for 25 yards, thanks to the conservative gameplan. They ran on first down again, but there was defensive holding, and it was a first down at the 5. They passed incomplete on first down because the defensive holding was not called. They then ran for 3 yards. Aikman said that Rodgers looked very unhappy with the call. Rodgers was obviously very frustrated with the conservative gameplan that not only doesn’t work, but that doesn’t let him get into a rhythm and the offense get in sync. Rodgers scrambled on the next play and was pushed out of bounds inside the 1. There was a blatant helmet-to-helmet hit that was very visible, which was not only dangerous and could have hurt Rodgers badly, but the penalty wasn’t called. Had the penalty been called, the Packers have a first down inside the half-yardline. Instead, it was 4th down. McCarthy kicks the field goal from the 1! I have always said when you do this, you are being passive, and that carries over. The odds of scoring are great, and even if you don’t, the odds of you getting the ball back in field-goal range are excellent. So, the refs not only cost the Packers 4 points with this non-call (the difference in the game), but McCarthy did the same thing.
When it was 14-13 Cincy, Rodgers and McCarthy were arguing on the sidelines. I don’t know what was said, but it would seem very likely that Rodgers was upset with the conservative gameplan. During the 15-1 season two years ago when games were close, Rodgers asked McCarthy to stop taking his foot off the pedal, and the Packers threw more and won easily. It would seem that Rodgers was frustrated with this. Rodgers was 2 of 9 for 25 yards at this point, with 5:35 left in the second quarter.
The Packers ran on first for 3, ran on second for 2, and threw for the first down. They then passed on first down and got the first down. They then passed for a first down. They then passed for 9-1/2 yards and ran for the first down at the 5. They ran on first down for 1, got sacked on second down, completed a short pass, and had to kick a field goal. Again, the first-down run stalled the drive and likely cost them another 4 points. McCarthy had now cost the Packers two TDs that were turned into field goals.
The Packers were up 16-14 at half, but would have had a large lead had McCarthy not run on drives making no attempt to score, and turning TDs into field goals with conservative playcalling. This is exactly what I say he does week after week, and the result is the same week after week. Rather than putting games away early, as he did last week with an aggressive gameplan, he had a conservative gameplan, putting the outcome up for grabs.
First drive of second half: Pass on first down for 26. Pass on first and get first down. Pass on first down and get first down on a penalty. Pass on first down and get first down on a penalty. Run on first down and get a first down. Pass on first down and get a TD.
Next drive: Pass on first down and get first down. Pass on first down for 30 yards to Cincy 6. Run on first down for a loss of 1, but pass for a TD. Rodgers was hit low at the knees after the pass, but no call. It could have resulted in a big injury.
So, passing got them a 30-14 lead.
The Packers were given a personal-foul penalty on the extra point, which gave Cincy better field position after the kickoff and contributed to them scoring a TD to cut the lead to 30-21. As the announcers pointed out, a Bengal player gave the Packer player two cheap shots, and when the Packer player pushed him down, the Packer player got the penalty. Again, this contributed to a key TD and change of momentum to the Bengals.
I always say the Packers need to be aggressive after the opponent scores, so they can also score and regain the momentum. The Packers started from their 40. What does McCarthy do? He runs on first down, and Rodgers throws an interception. Once again, a first-down run resulted in a key turnover, and kept the momentum with the Bengals.
On the next drive, the Packers did move the ball by passing, but then Rodgers threw an interception at the Cincy 4. As I said, his interceptions come in games where he is frustrated with the playcalling.
Up 30-27 in the fourth quarter, the Packers had a chance to score a TD and go up two scores with just a few minutes left. They ran on first down for a first down. They ran on first down and passed for the first down. They passed on first down and got the first down. They ran on first down for 4, were sacked on second down for a loss of 7, then passed for more than 12 yards, but a few inches short of the first down. Once again, a first-down run stalled the drive. The Packers wisely decided to go for it from the Cincy 29. Prior to the play, I said they absolutely had to run a QB sneak, and could not hand the ball off. They just needed inches, and it was risky to hand the ball off with 11 defenders probably playing the run. A QB sneak has a huge probability of success. What does McCarthy do? He hands the ball off, the running back fumbles, and Cincy returns it for a TD for a 34-30 lead and the ultimate final score. Not only did McCarthy call a terrible play, which I said prior to the play not to call, but a first-down run again stalled a drive, led to a turnover and opponent score, and this drive could have won the game. Instead, McCarthy’s playcalling resulted in this drive “losing” them the game.
Letting the Bengals hang around by not trying to score most of the game backfired as it so often does, and they couldn’t overcome the bad calls, injuries, turnovers, etc.
The Packers drove to the Cincy 20 at the end of the game, but couldn’t score.