Refs, McCarthy Give Packers Opening “Loss”

Prior to explaining how the refs and McCarthy cost the Packers their opening game against the 49ers, I will recap my philosophy because the season just started.  This can be seen in numerous posts below, but should be repeated to start the season.  I have always felt that the Packers’ best chance to win is to pass on first down and pass a lot, building up a big lead, putting pressure on the opponent, and acting as insurance should the Packers suffer injuries/penalties/fluke plays during the game.  Not doing this allows the other team to gain confidence, hang around, and potentially win.  I have also said McCarthy is very conservative, and when he runs on first down, they tend to punt, and when he throws on first down, they tend to score.  I’ve said that you might get a first down or two by running on first down, but the drive will eventually stall.  This has held true starting with the Favre era, but Packer coaches just don’t get it.  Game after game this is proven true.  I’ve also said they need to pass on first downs after the other team scores to score themselves and regain the momentum.  So, let’s look at this game and see what happened.

1.  Packers’ first offensive drive:  Run on first down for 1 yard, sack for -8, pass for 9, and punt.  They ran on first down and punted.

2.  Packers’ second offensive drive:  Run on first down for a loss of 3, back to their 15.  The runner’s facemask was blatantly grabbed for a long time, but the refs didn’t call it.  The Packers should have had a first down at the 30, had the penalty been called.  They passed for 9 and passed for 18 to get the first down.  They then ran on first down for 1, ran on second down for 2, and punted.  At this point, Lacy, their running back, was 4 for 1.  So, McCarthy started the game by running on first downs on the first two drives, and instead of trying to score, punted twice and they were now down 7-0 as a result.  He made no attempt to score on these drives.

3.  Once the 49ers went up 7-0, McCarthy decided to pass.  I’ve also always said they should pass on first downs after the opponent scores to score and regain momentum, but he rarely does this.  The Packers did do this on this possession, as they had a 6-play drive, ALL of which were passes, and scored an easy touchdown.

4.  After holding the 49ers, the Packers got the ball back.  Does McCarthy throw on first down to try to take the lead?  Of course not.  He runs on first down, and the holding penalty makes it first and twenty from their 10.  They then ran again, fumbled, and the 49ers recovered at the Packer 14, eventually getting a touchdown to go up 14-7. Once again, a first-down run backfired and resulted in the opponent scoring a TD.

5.  On the TD drive, the Packers stopped the drive and the 49ers were going to have to settle for a FG, but Matthews committed a late-hit roughing penalty.  The 49ers also committed a personal foul, but the refs made a mistake, and instead of offsetting the penalties bringing up 4th down, they replayed third down, and the 49ers scored a TD.  I said AT THE TIME that the refs blew this, as both penalties were dead-ball fouls.  This was basically the difference in the game, and there will be more about this below, including the NFL’s statement.

6.  At this point, the Packers had 4 drives.  They ran on first downs on 3 of them, resulting in 2 punts and a fumble, the fumble giving the 49ers a TD.  They passed on first downs on one drive, and scored a TD.  Anyone see a familiar pattern here?  This is only what has been happening to the Packers since the early 90s.  Again, this strategy of making no attempt to score had the Packers down 14-7 instead of potentially leading by 7-14 points at this point of the game.

7.  On a later drive, the Packers passed to the 49er 49-yardline, then ran on first down, and after the hold, had first and 20.  Their first-and-20 pass was deflected and intercepted at the S.F. 44.  Again, a first-down run led to a turnover.

8.  The Packers later passed to the S.F. 35, with under 2:00 in the half.  They ran on second down, held again, and had second and 20.  On this drive, the 49ers knew the Packers had to pass, since it started with 1:32 left in the half.  Even knowing they had to pass, they couldn’t stop them.  It was a 62-yard drive, with every play except 2 being a pass.  One of the runs was the holding play mentioned above.  The other was on third-and-one, when they ran for 3.  This drive proved again that when the Packers passed, the 49ers couldn’t stop them.

9.  In the second half, the 49ers scored to go up 21-14.  I’ve said the Packers need to throw on first downs after the opponent scores to score and regain momentum.  What does McCarthy do?  He runs on first down for no gain (Lacy was 6 for 4 at that point), runs on second down for 2, and punts.

10. On the next drive, the Packers got a first down by running, then passed on every play the rest of the drive to score the TD to make it 21-21.  Passing again resulted in a TD, and emphasized the fact that McCarthy wasted so many drives by running on first down.

11. After Kaepernick ran out of bounds at the Packer 10, Boldin leveled a Packer from behind.  No personal foul was called, and the 49ers kicked a FG to go up 24-21.  I’m not saying they wouldn’t have kicked the FG anyway, but it probably would have been a longer kick had the penalty been called.  It would also have been a long way to go for a first down or TD, so it’s also possible they could have turned the ball over, been sacked, etc.

12. The 49ers went up 24-21 with the FG.  Once again, it was important the Packers throw on first down to score, regain the lead, and regain momentum.  What does McCarthy do?  The same thing that had failed all game.  He ran on first for 3, was sacked on second down, and punted.  Can’t McCarthy see a pattern that has held true in every game since the early 90s?

Here is what NFL.com had to say after the game:

Referee admits to error that gave 49ers an extra down

• By Dan      Hanzus
• Around the      League Writer
• Published:      Sept. 8, 2013 at 09:03 p.m.
• Updated:      Sept. 9, 2013 at 12:10 a.m.

The 49ers were the benefactor of an official’s error Sunday, giving San Francisco an extra down on which it scored a touchdown in Sunday’s 34-28 win over the Green Bay Packers.

Head referee Bill Leavy admitted after the game that he mistakenly ruled a replay of third down after offsetting penalties by Packers linebacker Clay Matthews and 49ers offensive tackle Joe Staley followed a Colin Kaepernick scramble in the second quarter.

“On the play where the quarterback (Kaepernick) went out of bounds and was hit late out of bounds, and then there was a subsequent hit by a San Francisco player, the down should have counted,” Leavy said. “The penalties were both dead ball and they should have offset at the spot where the runner went out of bounds. And it would have been fourth down.”

Asked if it should have been fourth-and-2 instead of third-and-6, Leavy replied, “Correct.”

NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy provided further explanation on the play in question, which set up a 10-yard touchdown catch by 49ers wide receiver Anquan Boldin on the next snap.

“The down ended when Kaepernick stepped out of bounds,” McCarthy said. “Both the late hit by Matthews and the unnecessary roughness foul on Staley are considered dead-ball fouls. As a result, the down should have counted and the fouls offset at the dead-ball spot, making it fourth-and-2 at the 6-yard line.

“The officiating crew erroneously offset the fouls as if they were live-ball fouls and replayed third down.”

The instant accountability is nice to see, but it doesn’t change the painful result for the Packers.

Back to my commentary:  Now, there was talk after the game that there should not have been a personal foul call on Staley, as he just wrapped up Matthews and got in his face.  However, the same penalty could have been called on Boldin, who ran into the group of players and committed a personal foul.

On Lacy’s touchdown, well after he crossed the goal line and was on top of the pile, a 49er defender came in and intentionally gave him a helmet-to-helmet shot that knocked him back about two yards.  Far more dangerous than the Matthews play, and of course, no penalty for a head shot or late hit.

So, last year, the Packers were denied a bye and homefield advantage in the playoffs, and a potential Super Bowl win, by the terrible calls in the Seattle game, which everyone saw.  Even without this game, had the Colts game not been stolen, they would have had a bye and homefield advantage.  Once again, yesterday, the Packers have a win stolen against a key rival, and again, this might determine playoff position, etc.  Windows to win championships are rare for teams.  The refs stole 7 championships from the Favre Packers, and are now doing the same thing under Rodgers.  The refs also stole the playoff game Rodgers’ second year, although they probably weren’t good enough to win the Super Bowl that year.