Let’s start with the officiating, then get to the coaching and other unforced errors. Not only have the refs stolen 3 games from the Packers this year, but have now given the bears a critical game. This game gives them momentum and a big “win” as they go into the tougher part of their schedule, and could allow them to make the playoffs. Losing to a 1-5 team at home with the tough part of the schedule coming up and knowing the Packers are really 8-0 is a much different scenario. So, to the calls:
Midway through the third quarter, the Panthers led 13-7. They had a first down at the bear 9, so a TD would have put them up 20-7, kept the momentum, and given them 4 more points than a field goal would have. On third and goal, there was an incomplete pass to Steve Smith in the endzone. He was blatantly held for a long period of time in the open field, which prevented him from catching the ball. Had the holding been called, it would be first-and-goal from the bear 1, and they would have scored a touchdown. That was 4 points and momentum, since they did get a field goal.
The Panthers led 22-20, and the bears had the ball at their own 34, with just under 2:00 left. They needed a field goal to win. Cutler passed 12 yards for a first down, but on the play, Webb blatantly held a pass rusher who was about to get Cutler. It was blatant, in the open field, and right near Cutler, all of which made it easy to see. This wasn’t called, the bears got the result of the play, and went on to kick the “winning” field goal. Had this been called, it would have been first-and-20 from their own 24, making it much more difficult to drive for the winning field goal. In addition, it’s possible that the hit would have caused Cutler to fumble, which would have ended the game. (Cutler did fumble twice earlier in the game.) Not calling that penalty was ridiculous.
Two terrible, blatant, and obvious calls were not made, either one of which gave the bears the game.
Before we get to the coaching, let’s look at the unforced errors that also gave the bears the game. The Jaguars led 19-7 in the fourth quarter and the bears hadn’t scored since the first quarter. The Jaguars were forced to punt after unsuccessful runs, and the punter punted only SIX YARDS to his own 38, so the bears went on to get a touchdown as a result. An unforced error/gift. On the next possession, Steve Smith slips, allowing the pass to be intercepted for a TD. Another unforced error/gift. In addition, on the last play of the first half, the Panthers could have tried a 50-yard field goal (their kicker was great all day) to put them up 16-7, but instead threw a Hail Mary pass OUT OF THE ENDZONE. More unforced errors and gifts.
Now, to the typical terrible coaching the bears benefit from week after week. Knowing the bears are very good against the run (and first-down runs stall drives), and knowing they are weak against the pass, let’s look at the running stats:
Stewart: 17 for 42, less than 2.5/carry. Williams: 11 for 33, 3/carry. Tolbert: 3 for 7, less than 2.5/carry. So, they ran 31 times for about 2.6 yards/carry. Wasted play after wasted play, stalling drive after drive. As you will see, the Panthers could have put this game away early if they threw on first downs and other downs instead of being conservative. The bears had 7 offensive points midway through the fourth quarter, so they weren’t going to score. (The same happened last week, when they only scored 13 all game, but the Lions didn’t try to score.) Let’s look at some of the results of this, drive by drive:
Run for 2, incomplete pass, pass for 18/pass incomplete, run for loss of 1, pass for 10, punt. Runs stalled the drive.
From own 5: run for 0, run for 2, pass for 9. Run for 4, incomplete pass, sack for loss of 6, punt. The first-down run not only stalled the drive, but gave the bears great field position at the Panther 49, and they went on to score a TD and take a 7-3 lead.
Pass on first down for 62 yards to the bear 18. Run on first down for 1, but hold, so first-and-20 from bear 28. Pass for 5, missed wide-open Steve Smith for a TD, passed for 7, kicked field goal. The first-down run stalled the drive, and resulted in a field goal instead of a potential touchdown.
From bear 16: Run for 7, pass incomplete, scramble and fumble, but recover in the endzone for a TD. Teams continue to not protect the ball, knowing the bears go after it, even after all the fumbles the Lions had last week. The Panthers were lucky to recover, and the first-down run almost cost them this TD.
Run for loss of 2, pass for 9, pass for 8/pass incomplete, run for 1, pass incomplete but defensive penalty resulting in first down/pass incomplete, run for 9, run for less than 1 (Stewart was 7 for 11 before that play, and was now 8 for 11), sneak for 2/run for 1 (Stewart now 9 for 12), pass for 15/pass incomplete, pass for 10 to the bear 13/run for 3, run for loss of 3, incomplete pass, kick field goal. The first-down run stalled the drive, and resulted in a field goal instead of a potential touchdown.
From own 15: pass incomplete after bobbled snap, run for 2, pass incomplete but offsides, pass for 14/sack for loss of 11, run for 13, pass for 18/scramble for 4, with 47 seconds left in half at bear 40, throw interception on pass that should have been thrown away.
8 seconds left in half: Pass for 6. Instead of attempting a 50-yard field goal by a kicker who was great all day, threw a Hail Mary pass out of the endzone!
Second half: From own 6: Pass for 18/run for loss of 1, pass for 25/run for loss of 1, run for 1, pass for 15/run for 17 to bear 20/run for 1, pass incomplete but penalty results in first down at bear 9/run for 5, pass incomplete, pass incomplete, kick field goal. Again, a first-down run stalled a drive and resulted in a field goal instead of a potential touchdown.
From own 12: Run for 6, pass for 3, QB-draw for 7/pass for 47 to bear 25/run for 0, pass incomplete, pass incomplete. Once again, a first-down run stalled a drive and resulted in a field goal instead of a potential touchdown. Since it was a 1-point “win,” each one of these terrible coaching decisions by itself also cost the Panthers the game.
Leading 19-7 with 12:09 left: Pass for 8, run for 1 (Stewart was 15 for 38 at the time), run for 0, punt. Runs once again stalled an important drive. They needed to make this more than a 2-score game in the fourth quarter, but got conservative and thus didn’t score. They then punted 6 yards to their own 38, and the bears scored a TD to pull within 5, then scored on a turnover to take a one-point lead. This is the danger of continuing to be conservative by running against the bears who are good against the run and not against the pass, as it allows teams to hang around and let fluke plays (6-yard punt), turnovers (interception for a TD), etc. impact the outcome.
Down 20-19 with 6:44 to play, the Panthers needed to score to regain the lead and momentum. This means being aggressive by passing and passing on first downs. Let’s look at the drive: Run for 1, pass incomplete but roughing penalty gives first down. Again, a key drive might have stalled due to a first-down run, but they were fortunate there was a penalty./pass for 7, run for 2, scramble for first down/run for 8, run for loss of 1, run for first down/run for 2, Steve Smith drops a TD pass that he could have caught, pass incomplete, kick field goal. Once again, and again I say once again, a first-down run turned a potential touchdown into a field goal or stalled drive. All this in a game the bears “won” by 1 point.