The refs, the NFL, and Mike McCarthy all played key roles in the Packers’ “loss” to the 49ers yesterday in the Divisional Playoffs.
Let’s start with the refs:
1. The 49ers were flagged for a facemask penalty on an early Packer drive. It was blatant, the facemask was held for a long time and pulled, and it was easily seen. The refs decided to pick up the flag and said there was no foul. Instead of a first down, this left the Packers with a third-and-five, but they did get the first down and scored a touchdown to take a 14-7 lead.
2. With 2:11 left in the half of a 21-21 game, if a team could score before halftime to take a lead, it would give them some momentum. On second-and-7 from the 49er 23, Kaepernick scrambled and Sam Shields, while trying to make the tackle, was held, allowing Kaepernick to get a nice gain of 19 yards. Had the hold been called, and Aikman talked about the hold, it would have been second-and 11 from their own 19 instead of a first down at their 42. As a result, the 49ers kicked a field goal on the last play of the half to take a 24-21 lead. This call could have resulted in a 3- to 10-point turnaround at that point of the game. It also kept the Packer defense on the field longer, helping to tire them out.
3. With 8:46 left in the third quarter, down 24-21, the Packers had third-and-11 from the 49er 23. Cobb caught a pass and was tackled at the 15, short of the first down. The tackler blatantly went helmet-to-helmet and it caused Cobb to fumble (the Packers recovered at the 13). Had the penalty been called, it would have given the Packers a first down at the 6-1/2 yardline, and a probable TD and a 28-24 lead. Since it wasn’t called, and again, it was in the open field and easily visible, the Packers had to settle for a field goal and a 24-24 game. It was 4th-and-1, but McCarthy didn’t go for it and kicked a field goal. As so often happens when a team holds its opponent to a field goal deep in their territory, the momentum changes and that team scores. The 49ers did score a touchdown in only 1:09 to go up 31-24, so this non-call made a difference of potentially 14 points and momentum.
Now, the league:
Had the Packers “won” one more game, they would have had homefield advantage and a bye the first playoff week. That would have forced the 49ers to play the week before and have to win, and also risk injury. Instead, the Packers had to, and the Packers weren’t able to rest their injured players. It also would have forced the 49ers to come to Lambeau instead of the game being in S.F., which is a huge difference. Although the refs also stole the Colts and Vikings games and impacted the first 49er game, if we only talk about the Seattle game, that would have put the game in Lambeau. The NFL had no integrity in this situation. Everyone knew the Packers won the game and one of the officials involved later said he learned the rule as a result, so this game could have been easily overturned due to a rules interpretation. The fact that the league would not right this wrong possibly decided this year’s Super Bowl winner.
Now, things I said BEFORE the game or before plays:
1. I said before the game that the Packers had to gameplan to stop Kaepernick runs. I said that Joe Webb of the Vikings hurt them this way the week before, and Kaepernick likes to do this. He hurt them badly all game, rushing 14 times for 183 yards and 2 TDs before the kneeldowns, setting a rushing record for quarterbacks in any game, regular- or post-season. He was hurting them with runs from early in the game on, and the Packers never adjusted. He ran 11 times for 107 yards in the first half! Troy Aikman mentioned this a number of times, at one point using the term “mind boggling” to describe the Packers’ lack of adjustment.
2. Early in the game, I said the Packers should not field any punts inside their 10, and should let them bounce, hoping they would go into the endzone. Shortly thereafter, the Packers scored to go up 14-7, stopped the 49ers, and had momentum and a chance to increase the lead since they were getting the ball back. The Packers fielded the punt inside the 10, fumbled it, and the 49ers went on to score the tying touchdown, completely reversing the momentum. The 49ers shortly thereafter went up 21-14 on a touchdown following an interception after a first-down run, so this play completely turned the game around at that point.
3. I read that slot receivers hurt the 49ers this year, and the Packers had been very successful throwing to Cobb out of the slot all year. They didn’t do that this game to take advantage of this, and there were times the slants and plays over the middle were there for him from the slot. This included a third-and-6 in the third quarter when the Packers were only down 7, where Cobb had single coverage with the defender off him and no one else in the area. The Packers threw elsewhere, and incomplete.
4. I said before the game that the Packers had to be aggressive offensively and pass on first downs and most downs. McCarthy’s insistence on establishing the run and balancing the offense hurt them all year and kept their high-powered offense out of sync all year. It was my hope he would have a gameplan like he had when they beat Atlanta two years ago in the playoffs when he threw on 74% of the plays in the first three quarters and blew Atlanta out. McCarthy continued to run at the wrong times in this game. The 49ers kicked a field goal to go up by 3 at half, and the Packers were getting the ball to start the second half. I said they had to come out passing to score a touchdown, take the lead, and get momentum. What does McCarthy do? He runs on first and second down, and they punt. In Rodgers’ postgame press conference, he mentioned twice how important it was for them to score a touchdown on the opening drive of the second half, and said had they scored a touchdown there to take the lead, they would have been in good shape. It was obvious how critical this was, but McCarthy came out running. The Packers held the 49ers and got the ball back. They went empty backfield (no running backs) for most of their second drive of the second half, and moved downfield easily by passing even though the 49ers knew they had to pass. They then ran on first down, stalling the drive, and had to kick a field goal. This was the drive the helmet-to-helmet penalty was not called, but the drive would not have been stopped had they kept passing. As I mentioned, they tied the game with a field goal, but the momentum change of stopping a team deep in your territory resulted in the 49ers scoring a TD on their next drive. So, the first two second-half drives, which were critical to take control of the game, were both stalled by first-down runs, and the momentum change helped S.F. score. There was a drive in the first half when the Packers threw on every play but two (two 3-yard runs), and of course, scored an easy touchdown.
5. With 5:25 left in the fourth quarter, the 49ers, up two touchdowns, had a fourth-and-1 deep in Green Bay territory at the 18. If they kicked a field goal, it would have basically ended the game, as the Packers would have been down 3 scores with not a lot of time left. The 49ers lined up as if they were going for it. I made the statement that they were only trying to draw the Packers offside, as a field goal is as good as a touchdown in that situation and they wouldn’t give up the scoring opportunity. McCarthy didn’t tell his linemen not to jump, and they jumped offsides, giving the 49ers a first down at the Packer 13 and eventual touchdown. Now, you could make the argument (and I would agree) that it was smart to jump offsides, because a field goal would have basically ended the game. By getting the 49ers to run more plays, there was an opportunity for a turnover. However, I didn’t see the Packers trying to strip the ball or holding the runners up to try for a turnover.
6. The Packers had a third-and-5 at their 49 in the fourth quarter when the game was still on the line. All year I’ve said they need to run high-percentage pass plays in these situations to make sure they get the first down, but McCarthy frequently calls lower-percentage plays and ends up punting. They threw a bomb on this play and just missed connecting for a touchdown, which would have been okay if they would have gone for it on fourth down. Since they punted, this was a bad decision, and it was a bad decision to punt. I said they needed to go for it because their defense was tired and hadn’t been stopping the 49ers, they only needed 5 yards and could pass successfully, and a touchdown could cut the lead to 7. They punted, and the 49ers went 93 yards and scored a touchdown to go up 21 and end the game.
Yes, the refs played a big part in the outcome. Yes, the league played a big part in the outcome. However, despite both of those injustices, the Packers would probably still have won the game if not for McCarthy. Jim Harbaugh looks at his quarterback’s strengths and devises a gameplan to maximize them. McCarthy on the other hand, obviously doesn’t realize his quarterback’s strengths, as he continues to devise gameplans to minimize them. This is the same thing that happened throughout Brett Favre’s career. When the Packers come out passing on first downs and most downs, they almost always win big, but when they run on first downs and try to be balanced, they struggle. This has held true since 1992 or 1993, but McCarthy doesn’t understand this. McCarthy has the best quarterback in the league and the NFL MVP, but he continues to tie his hands the way Favre’s hands were tied throughout his career. Here is an excerpt from a comment on the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s website: “Offense in general: When GB has the talent and option of spreading Jennings, Jones, Nelson, Cobb, and Finley, but instead throws on 2nd and short to Harris and on 3rd and short to Kuhn – as Vince Lombardi would yell, “WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON OUT THERE!” If MM scripts the first 12 or 15 plays, how come on our first possession those are our 2nd and 3rd down calls? Three and out and an abysmal 3rd down conversion rate speaks to our play calling. If you’ve got the finest receiving corps in the NFL and it creates match-up problems for opposing defenses – WE HAVE TO PUT THE PEDAL TO THE METAL AND GO TO OUR STRENGTHS – PUT UP 50 POINTS IF YOU HAVE TO. Zero points in the second half against Minnesota last week and ten points in the whole 2nd half last night is just ridiculous for our offensive talent.” I agree, and have been saying this for decades!
On another note, the Broncos lost yesterday’s game because they made the same mistake teams continue to make. They had the ball, up 7, with not much time left. If they got a first down, the game would have been over. Instead, they ran three times, including on third-and-7 for no gain, and punted. The defense is typically stacked to stop the run in these situations, knowing teams will almost always run. This strategy puts the game in the hands of a tired defense where the offense is desperate and will be passing, and frequently backfires as a result. I believe the Patriots lost 2 or 3 games this year due to this. What happened? The Ravens got the ball back with 1:09 left in the fourth quarter, scored a tying touchdown, and went on to win in overtime. I will never understand when a team can end the game by making one play and they refuse to try to do this, giving the other team an opportunity to try to win.
On still another note, Peyton Manning’s ill-advised pass in overtime that was intercepted and cost the Broncos the game should not have been thrown. Manning has had other multi-interception games in the playoffs, and Tom Brady has had terrible playoff games. However, despite all the great games Favre has played and won for his teams, he has the reputation for losing games with ill-advised passes, but all these other QBs don’t get this reputation despite doing the same things. And, the others don’t necessarily win games by the dramatic plays Favre has made to win games. Manning has 1 Super Bowl win, while Favre has 9.
It’s good to know that the Packers would not have lost a game since 1993 if it weren’t for the mistakes of the refs, the coaches, the league, and the players!
1) Coaches are not all powerful. Perhaps they had no answer to Colin, just like many other teams this year. Perhaps Harbaugh and the niners devised a plan that made it very difficult to adjust on the fly. That is what happens sometimes. Perhaps, the fact that the niners had a consistent running game kept the ball completely out of Aaron Rodgers’ hands made the difference, accentuating each of these little snafus that you have picked out. Why don’t you give the 49ers credit? That is how you beat an NFL MVP, minimize his chances, i.e. Giants SB victories.
2) You fail to note any of the calls or breaks that didn’t go the 49ers way. Just like the Cubs, the Packers had been unable to overcome any sort of bad break. Boo, yes there were a few calls that could have gone the Packers way, but an EQUAL amount went poorly against the niners. For example, a pass interference call in the first half that baffled the announcers. The helmet to helmet from goldson in the second half, while stupid, also confounded the announcers as the whistle had not been blown (also mentioned on ESPN) and could have gone either way. A few late hit calls on Colin could have been called. Also, the taunting play on Colin was absolutely ridiculous. Again, it was dumb, but players get away with sooooo much more that his little flick of the ball. However, the main difference in each of these cases is that the Niners overcame them! What an amazing thought!
The truth of the matter is, the Packers were beaten. The only reason they were even in this game was because Colin gave them a very late Christmas present in the first two minutes.
They could have won other games as well without that Seahawks loss. Not everything progresses in a single direction. Who knows what would have happened had they won that game, just like who knows what would have happened if all of these things went the Packers way instead? Plenty more mistakes could have been waiting right around the corner.
Go Niners!
Dude, you’re ridiculous. The man speaks the truth, so learn to have some respect for intelligent people.
Aside from the bad calls that cost the Packers, the 49ers “won” because they had a coach who knows how to devise a good gameplan based on his personnel and the opponent, and the Packers have a coach who doesn’t know how to do this or adjust. As I mentioned, I said before the game the key was to stop Kaepernick’s runs. Once what they were doing wasn’t working, they needed to adjust. I don’t care if that meant assigning three defenders to him, they needed to do whatever it took, as that was what could lose them the game and was “losing” them the game. Aikman continually expressed amazement the Packers didn’t adjust to this.
And, yes, the Packers would have won MANY more games in the last 20 years, and many of their wins wouldn’t have been so close, had they had aggressive offensive gameplans. This is proven every time they do get aggressive, and score easily.
I do give the 49ers a lot of credit. They had a good gameplan and played well, unlike the Packers who did not have a good gameplan. It’s hard to overcome bad calls and the loss of homefield advantage, when your coach is your own worst enemy. You think the 49ers kept Rodgers off the field, but McCarthy’s first-down runs resulted in stalled drives and kept him off the field.
The reason the 49ers were able to overcome their adversity was mostly due to McCarthy. You say the interception return was a gift, but he was under pressure and threw. The fumble on the punt inside the 10 was a gift. The Packers had more turnovers than the 49ers, so they obviously gave them more gifts.
The Packers did win other games. The refs blatantly also stole the Colts and Vikings games, and had an impact in the first 49er game, failing to call five (I think) false starts on the 49ers, enabling them to continue drives. The Packers might have had the first seed if not for all of this.
I definitely agree that the Packers were very much out coached, but to say that the niners “won” the game is a bit ridiculous. However, when does it end? If they pass on first down and don’t get it, then they should have passed a different way. If they ran on first down and got the next first down, they were lucky. If they ran for a td, they were lucky. At what point can you say that the Packers lose because they cannot afford to be a balanced team?
And if I do recall, they went 3 and out in their first possession while passing on first down, so where do you draw the line at what actually happened and what could have happened?
The Packers DO know that they are permitted, by rule, to play defense, do they not??