Second Super Bowl Power Outage

The Ravens-49ers Super Bowl was A Tale of Two Coaches–John Harbaugh in the first half when he was aggressive offensively, and his “power outage” in the second half when he was not aggressive.  The Ravens won their previous games because they let Flacco throw.  When the score was 28-6 Ravens, I received a few texts telling me the game was over.  I responded it was not over, because I never underestimate the decision-making of NFL coaches.  They just don’t get it, and as a result, use strategies that allow the opponent to hang around and sometimes win.

We’ll look at Baltimore first, then S.F.

Baltimore’s first drive:  Pass on first down for 8 and get a first down.  Pass on first down for 20 yards.  Run on first down for 1 yard, and throw incomplete on third-and-9.  However, S.F. was offsides, so it became third-and-4, and the Ravens passed for a 13-yard TD.  The first-down run should have stalled the drive, but the Ravens were fortunate S.F. jumped offsides.  On this opening drive, Baltimore threw on 5 of 6 plays and every yard but 1 was through the air.  There were no previous runs to make play-action effective–they came out passing and scored a touchdown.

Baltimore’s second drive:  Pass on first down for 9 and get a first down.  Run for 3, pass incomplete, pass for 30.  Pass for a loss of three, pass incomplete, get sacked and punt.  This might look like a failure on a drive that started with a first-down pass, but on the second-down pass to Torrey Smith in the endzone, he was blatantly interfered with and it was not called.  Had this been called, the Ravens would have had a first-down at the 1, and a very likely TD.  First-down passes and passes on other downs were successful.

Up 14-3, Baltimore got to the S.F. 15.  A first-down run for 1 yard stalled the drive, and resulted in the fake field-goal attempt.  The fake was another example of John Harbaugh being aggressive in the first half, but the first-down run stalled the drive.

With 2:07 left in the half, Baltimore threw on first down and had a 56-yard TD pass on third down.

I’ve always said that being aggressive on offense carries over to the defense, and being passive on offense does the same thing.  The Ravens were more aggressive in the first half and the defense played well, but when they got more passive in the second half, their defense didn’t play as well and gave up a lot of points.  In the first half, Flacco threw for 192 yards (187 if you deduct the 5-yard sack).  The Ravens ran 15 times for 46 yards (just over 3 yards/carry), so the 21-6 lead could have been bigger if not for all of these runs that didn’t do much.

When the second half started, I said Baltimore needed to come out aggressively on offense and throw on first downs to keep the pressure on S.F. and put the game away.  The first time they had the ball, they were up 28-6 thanks to a kickoff return for a TD to open the half, and they threw on first down for 15 yards.  They then ran on first down for 2 yards and punted, throwing away an opportunity to pretty much put the game away.

The 49ers scored two touchdowns in 2:21 to cut the lead to 28-20, so Baltimore needed to score a touchdown to regain momentum and take momentum from S.F.  They ran on first down for 3, and fumbled on second down, giving the 49ers the ball at the Baltimore 24.  A first-down run led to a turnover and score, as S.F. got a field goal, cutting a once-22-point lead to 5.

Again, the Ravens needed to score a touchdown to regain momentum, take momentum from S.F., and make it a two-score differential.  The Ravens had first-and-goal at the 5, and a touchdown would have been huge, putting them up 2 scores in the fourth quarter.  The Ravens ran on first and second down, so had to kick a field goal, giving them an 8-point lead.  The first-down run stalled the drive.

I’ve always said that when a team holds their opponent to a field goal after stopping them deep in their territory, the resulting momentum change frequently results in them scoring a touchdown, and predicted this would happen here.  S.F. did score a touchdown to pull within 2 points, but missed the 2-point conversion.

Baltimore got the ball up 31-29 with 9:51 left, and I said they needed to be aggressive so they could score a TD and go up 2 scores, in addition to getting momentum.  They passed for 4, ran for a loss of 3, and got the first down on third-down pass interference.  They ran for 2, passed for 7, and passed for 15.  They ran for 12.  They ran for 2, ran for 1, passed incomplete, and kicked a field goal from the 20.  A first-down run stalled the drive.  They needed a TD to go up 2 scores, and this field goal only put them up by 5, so a TD would beat them.  Once again, the momentum change from stopping a team deep in your territory frequently leads to the other team scoring.  There was 4:19 left when S.F. got the ball.  Since the Ravens didn’t try to score at TD, they were putting the game in the hands of their defense.  At this point in the game, the offense is desperate so will pass (increasing the chances of being successful), the offense will have 4 downs vs. the normal 3 (increasing the chances of being successful), and the defense is tired (increasing the chances of the offense being successful).  S.F. easily marched to the Baltimore 7, where, with 2:39 left, they had 4 chances to get a touchdown.  The 49ers had a great chance of scoring a touchdown if the blatant holding was called on the defensive back, so the Ravens were very lucky here.  Their strategy of not trying to score TDs in the second half should have cost them the game (offensively, they had only 6 points in the second half), but the obvious penalty wasn’t called.  Having said this, the Ravens were robbed of a TD in the first quarter when Torrey Smith was interfered with and another drive was stopped when, as Trent Dilfer said, an “egregious late hit on Flacco” wasn’t called.

Now, let’s look at what S.F. did:

S.F.’s first drive:  Throw on first down for 20 yards, but get called for an illegal formation, making it first-and-15.  Run on first down for no gain and punt.

S.F.’s second drive:  Run on first down for a loss of 1, pass for 19.  Run on first down for no gain but get first down on QB run.  QB run for 7 and get first down.  Pass on first down for 24 yards to the Raven 8.  Run on first down for no gain, which stalls the drive, forcing them to kick a field goal.

S.F.’s third drive:  Pass on first down for 29.  Pass on first down for 11.  Run on first down for 9, run for 7.  Run on first down for a loss of 1, fumble on the play, and Baltimore recovers.  A first-down run led to a turnover and a resulting touchdown by the Ravens.

S.F. later got the ball at their own 6, ran on first down for no gain, and punted.  This also resulted in a Raven touchdown on the next drive.

With 1:45 left in the half, S.F. passed on every first down, which Baltimore knew they had to do, and got to the Baltimore 9 with a second-and-2.  They ran for no gain, this hurt the drive, and they had to kick a field goal, making it a 21-6 score at halftime.

After the kickoff return to start the second half made it 28-6 Ravens, S.F. needed to be aggressive offensively to get back in the game.  On their first drive, they threw on first down for 29 yards, then ran for 3 yards on first down and punted.  Another drive stalled by a first-down run.

S.F.’s second drive of the second half:  QB scrambles for 5 and 15 yards, run on first down for 2 and pass for 9 on third down, pass on first down for 18, pass on first down for 31 and a TD, making the score 28-13.  Being aggressive offensively resulted in a TD.

S.F.’s third drive of the second half:  They got the ball at the Baltimore 20 after a punt return.  They threw on first down for 14, then ran on first down for 6 and a TD.  Again, being aggressive resulted in a TD, making the score 28-20.